There is no doubt that tree survival, growth, and reproduction in North America’s boreal forest would be directly influenced by the projected changes in climate if they occur. The indirect effects of climate change may be of even greater importance, however, because of their potential for altering the intensity, frequency, and perhaps even the very nature of the disturbance regimes which drive boreal forest dynamics. Insect defoliator populations are one of the dominating disturbance factors in North America’s boreal forests and during outbreaks trees are often killed over vast forest areas. If the predicted shifts in climate occur, the damage patterns caused by insects may be considerably changed, particularly those of insects whose temporal and spatial distributions are singularly dependent on climatic factors. The ensuing uncertainties directly affect depletion forecasts, pest hazard rating procedures, and long-term planning for pest control requirements. Because the potential for wildfire often increases in stands after insect attack, uncertainties in future insect damage patterns also lead to uncertainties in fire regimes. In addition, because the rates of processes key to biogeochemical and nutrient recycling are influenced by insect damage, potential changes in damage patterns can indirectly affect ecosystem resilience and the sustainability of the multiple uses of the forest resource. In this paper, a mechanistic perspective is developed based on available information describing how defoliatoring forest insects might respond to climate warming. Because of its prevalence and long history of study, the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used for illustrative purposes in developing this perspective. The scenarios that follow outline the potential importance of threshold behavior, historical conditions, phenological relationships, infrequent but extreme weather, complex feedbacks, and natural selection. The urgency of such considerations is emphasized by reference to research suggesting that climate warming may already be influencing some insect lifecycles.

Climate adaptation is surprisingly rarely reported as a cause for the build-up of reproductive isolation between diverging populations. In this review, we summarize evidence for effects of climate adaptation on pre- and postzygotic isolation between emerging species with a particular focus on pied (Ficedula hypoleuca) and collared (Ficedula albicollis) flycatchers as a model for research on speciation. Effects of climate adaptation on prezygotic isolation or extrinsic selection against hybrids have been documented in several taxa, but the combined action of climate adaptation and sexual selection is particularly well explored in Ficedula flycatchers. There is a general lack of evidence for divergent climate adaptation causing intrinsic postzygotic isolation. However, we argue that the profound effects of divergence in climate adaptation on the whole biochemical machinery of organisms and hence many underlying genes should increase the likelihood of genetic incompatibilities arising as side effects. Fast temperature-dependent co-evolution between mitochondrial and nuclear genomes may be particularly likely to lead to hybrid sterility. Thus, how climate adaptation relates to reproductive isolation is best explored in relation to fast-evolving barriers to gene flow, while more research on later stages of divergence is needed to achieve a complete understanding of climate-driven speciation.

Natural selection on floral scent composition is a key element of the hypothesis that pollinators and other floral visitors drive scent evolution. The measure of such selection is complicated by the high-dimensional nature of floral scent data and uncertainty about the cognitive processes involved in scent-mediated communication. We use dimension reduction through reduced-rank regression to jointly estimate a scent composite trait under selection and the strength of selection acting on this trait. To assess and compare variation in selection on scent across species, time and space, we reanalyse 22 datasets on six species from four previous studies. The results agreed qualitatively with previous analyses in terms of identifying populations and scent compounds subject to stronger selection but also allowed us to evaluate and compare the strength of selection on scent across studies. Doing so revealed that selection on floral scent was highly variable, and overall about as common and as strong as selection on other phenotypic traits involved in pollinator attraction or pollen transfer. These results are consistent with an important role of floral scent in pollinator attraction. Our approach should be useful for further studies of plant-animal communication and for studies of selection on other high-dimensional phenotypes. In particular, our approach will be useful for studies of pollinator-mediated selection on complex scent blends comprising many volatiles, and when no prior information on the physiological responses of pollinators to scent compounds is available.

Understanding the dynamics of selection is key to predicting the response of tree species to new environmental conditions in the current context of climate change. However, selection patterns acting on early recruitment stages and their climatic drivers remain largely unknown in most tree species, despite being a critical period of their life cycle. We measured phenotypic selection on Pinus sylvestris seed mass, emergence time and early growth rate over 2 yr in four common garden experiments established along the latitudinal gradient of the species in Europe. Significant phenotypic plasticity and among-population genetic variation were found for all measured phenotypic traits. Heat and drought negatively affected fitness in the southern sites, but heavy rainfalls also decreased early survival in middle latitudes. Climate-driven directional selection was found for higher seed mass and earlier emergence time, while the form of selection on seedling growth rates differed among sites and populations. Evidence of adaptive and maladaptive phenotypic plasticity was found for emergence time and early growth rate, respectively. Seed mass, emergence time and early growth rate have an adaptive role in the early stages of P. sylvestris and climate strongly influences the patterns of selection on these fitness-related traits.

The on-going whole genome sequencing and whole cell assays of metabolites and proteins imply that complex systems could ultimately be mastered by perfecting knowledge into great detail. However, courses of nature are inherently intractable because flows of energy and their driving forces depend on each other. Thus no data will suffice to predict precisely the outcomes of e.g., engineering experiments. All path-dependent processes, most notably evolution in its entirety, display this capricious character of nature.

The role of geological events and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations as drivers of current patterns of genetic variation in extant species has been a topic of continued interest among evolutionary biologists. Nevertheless, comprehensive studies of widely distributed species are still rare, especially from Asia. Using geographically extensive sampling of many individuals and a large number of nuclear single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we studied the phylogeography and historical demography ofHyla annectanspopulations in southern China. Thirty-five sampled populations were grouped into seven clearly defined genetic clusters that closely match phenotype-based subspecies classification. These lineages diverged 2.32-5.23 million years ago (Ma), a timing that closely aligns with the rapid and drastic uplifting of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and adjacent southwest China. Demographic analyses and species distribution models indicate that different populations of this species have responded differently to past climatic changes. In the Hengduan Mountains, most populations experienced a bottleneck, whereas the populations located outside of the Hengduan Mountains have gradually declined in size since the end of the last glaciation. In addition, the levels of phenotypic and genetic divergence were strongly correlated across major clades. These results highlight the combined effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations, as well as natural selection, as drivers of contemporary patterns of genetic and phenotypic variation in a widely distributed anuran in Asia.