Browsing by Subject "niche model"

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  • Mod, Heidi K.; Scherrer, Daniel; Di Cola, Valeria; Broennimann, Olivier; Blandenier, Quentin; Breiner, Frank T.; Buri, Aline; Goudet, Jerome; Guex, Nicolas; Lara, Enrique; Mitchell, Edward A. D.; Niculita-Hirzel, Helene; Pagni, Marco; Pellissier, Loic; Pinto-Figueroa, Eric; Sanders, Ian R.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Seppey, Christophe V. W.; Singer, David; Ursenbacher, Sylvain; Yashiro, Erika; van der Meer, Jan R.; Guisan, Antoine (2020)
    Assessing the degree to which climate explains the spatial distributions of different taxonomic and functional groups is essential for anticipating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Most effort so far has focused on above-ground organisms, which offer only a partial view on the response of biodiversity to environmental gradients. Here including both above- and below-ground organisms, we quantified the degree of topoclimatic control on the occurrence patterns of >1,500 taxa and phylotypes along a c. 3,000 m elevation gradient, by fitting species distribution models. Higher model performances for animals and plants than for soil microbes (fungi, bacteria and protists) suggest that the direct influence of topoclimate is stronger on above-ground species than on below-ground microorganisms. Accordingly, direct climate change effects are predicted to be stronger for above-ground than for below-ground taxa, whereas factors expressing local soil microclimate and geochemistry are likely more important to explain and forecast the occurrence patterns of soil microbiota. Detailed mapping and future scenarios of soil microclimate and microhabitats, together with comparative studies of interacting and ecologically dependent above- and below-ground biota, are thus needed to understand and realistically forecast the future distribution of ecosystems.
  • Warmuth, Vera M.; Burgess, Malcolm D.; Laaksonen, Toni; Manica, Andrea; Magi, Marko; Nord, Andreas; Primmer, Craig R.; Saetre, Glenn-Peter; Winkel, Wolfgang; Ellegren, Hans (2021)
    Climate change influences population demography by altering patterns of gene flow and reproductive isolation. Direct mutation rates offer the possibility for accurate dating on the within-species level but are currently only available for a handful of vertebrate species. Here, we use the first directly estimated mutation rate in birds to study the evolutionary history of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Using a combination of demographic inference and species distribution modelling, we show that all major population splits in this forest-dependent system occurred during periods of increased climate instability and rapid global temperature change. We show that the divergent Spanish subspecies originated during the Eemian-Weichselian transition 115-104 thousand years ago (kya), and not during the last glacial maximum (26.5-19 kya), as previously suggested. The magnitude and rates of climate change during the glacial-interglacial transitions that preceded population splits in pied flycatchers were similar to, or exceeded, those predicted to occur in the course of the current, human-induced climate crisis. As such, our results provide a timely reminder of the strong impact that episodes of climate instability and rapid temperature changes can have on species' evolutionary trajectories, with important implications for the natural world in the Anthropocene.