Browsing by Subject "risk"

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  • Sipilä, Pyry; Gulnara, Harrasova; Mustelin, Linda; Rose, Richard J.; Kaprio, Jaakko; Keski-Rahkonen, Anna (2017)
    Since medieval times, an association between religiosity and anorexia nervosa has been suggested, but few systematic studies exist. This study examines in a nationwide setting whether personal or family religiosity is associated with lifetime anorexia nervosa among women in adolescence and early adulthood. Women (N = 2,825) from the 1975 to 1979 birth cohorts of Finnish twins were screened for lifetime DSM-5 anorexia nervosa (N = 92). Parental religiosity was assessed by self-report when the women were aged 16 years. The women self-reported their religiosity at ages 16 and 22 to 27 years. Parental religiosity did not increase the risk of lifetime anorexia nervosa, and neither did religiosity of the women themselves in adolescence. In early adulthood, a J-shaped curve was compatible with the data, indicating increased risk both at low and high levels of religiosity, but this result was statistically non-significant. Religiosity was weakly negatively correlated with body dissatisfaction. There was some suggestive evidence for socioregional variation in the association of religiosity with lifetime anorexia nervosa. In this first population study to directly address religiosity and anorexia nervosa, no evidence was found for a significant association of religiosity with anorexia nervosa either at the personal or family level. Some regional differences are possible. A modest protective association of religiosity with body dissatisfaction is also possible. Despite compelling case descriptions of holy anorexia, religiosity does not appear to be a central factor in the development of anorexia nervosa in Finland, a highly secularized Christian country.
  • Viitasaaari, Anna (Helsingfors universitet, 2011)
    Genetic engineering is a new technological field, incurring new risks. This work examines the regulation of this process and its products, genetically modified organisms (GMO). The mode of analysis is a comparison of the American and European regulatory approaches concerning this field. The concept of risk plays an important role in determining the way the new technology is perceived 1 and subsequently regulated. Scientific testing, in particular Risk Assessment techniques, has come to be the primary form of legitimating the use of GMOs. This work will explore the current GMO policy 1 regulations and the way that scientific knowledge has influenced policy making. The central aim of the work is to determine whether these methods are able to ensure the protection of human, animal, and environmental health. The application of the Precautionary Principle will be suggested as an alternative to the current regulatory approach.
  • Westman, Hanna (Svenska handelshögskolan, 2009)
    Economics and Society
    Banks are important as they have a central role in the financial system, where funds are channelled either through financial intermediaries, such as banks, or through financial markets, hence promoting growth in any economy. Recently, we have been reminded of the drawbacks of the central role of banks. The current financial crisis, which started out as a sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US, has become a global financial crisis with substantial impact on the real economy in many countries. Some of the roots to the current financial crisis can be sought in the changing role of banks and in bank corporate governance. Moreover, the substantial revitalising measures taken have been justified by the central role of banks. Not only are banks important, they are also very special. The fact that banks are regulated in conjunction with greater opacity, make bank corporate governance different from corporate governance in non-bank companies. Surprisingly little is, however, known about bank corporate governance, in particularly, in a European setting. Hence, the objective of this doctoral thesis is to provide new insights in this research area by examining banks from 37 different European countries. Each of the three essays included in the doctoral thesis examines a particular aspect of bank corporate governance. In the first essay the interaction between the regulatory environment a bank operates in and its ownership structure is explored. Indicators of the severity of the moral hazard problem induced by the deposit insurance system and implicit too-big-to-fail government guarantee, particular features of deposit insurance systems as well as legal protection of shareholders, legal origin of a country and level of integration to the European community are used in the analysis. The empirical findings confirm previous findings on the link between legal protection of shareholders and ownership structure. Moreover, they show that differences in deposit insurance system features can explain some of the differences in ownership structure across European banks. In the second essay the impact of management and board ownership on the profitability of banks with different strategy is examined. The empirical findings suggest that the efficiency of these two particular corporate governance mechanisms varies with the characteristics of the agency problem faced by the bank. More specifically, management ownership is important in opaque non-traditional banks, whereas board ownership is important in traditional banks, where deposit insurance reduces the monitoring incentives of outsiders. The higher profitability does, however, go together with higher risk. In the third essay the profitability and risk of commercial, savings and cooperative banks are compared. The empirical findings suggest that distinct operational and ownership characteristics rather than only the mere fact that a bank is a commercial, savings or cooperative bank explain the profitability and risk differences. The main insight from the three essays is that a number of different aspects should be addressed simultaneously in order to give the complexity of bank corporate governance justice.
  • Lindfors, Pirjo; Minkkinen, Jaana; Katainen, Anu Hannele; Rimpelä, Arja (2019)
    Background: Previous research suggests that parental knowledge of the child's activities and whereabouts prevents adolescents' alcohol use. However, evidence on whether the positive effects of maternal and paternal knowledge are distinctive for boys' and girls' alcohol use is inconclusive. We examined whether perceived parental knowledge at age 13 prevents alcohol use at age 16, whether the effect of maternal and paternal knowledge was the same for both genders, and whether paternal knowledge had as strong an effect as maternal knowledge. Method: Adolescents answered a school survey in 2011 (age 13) and 2014 (age 16) in Finland (N = 5742). Perceived maternal and paternal knowledge was measured separately using a Parents' Monitoring Scale. The data were analysed via moderation regression modelling using Bayesian estimation. Results: Perceived maternal and paternal knowledge at age 13 predicted boys' and girls' lower alcohol use at age 16. For those who had not used alcohol at age 13, parental knowledge protected against an increase of alcohol use at age 16. Both maternal and paternal knowledge had a shielding effect against the increase of boys' and girls' alcohol use, but maternal knowledge had a stronger shielding effect than paternal knowledge. Conclusions: Both maternal and paternal perceived knowledge at age 13 buffers against the adverse development of alcohol use at age 16 for both genders. Underlining the importance of parent-child communication and knowledge about the child's activities should be a part of family health counselling and school health services.
  • Venhoranta, Heli; Pausch, Hubert; Wysocki, Michal; Szczerbal, Izabela; Hänninen, Reetta; Taponen, Juhani; Uimari, Pekka; Flisikowski, Krzysztof; Lohi, Hannes; Fries, Ruedi; Switonski, Marek; Andersson, Magnus (2013)
  • Stjerna, Reetta; Sahlström, Leena; Lyytikäinen, Tapani (Evira, 2015)
    Riskiprofiilissa on tarkasteltu luokan 2 sivutuotteiden maahantuonnin aiheuttumaa nautoihin, sikoihin, lampaisiin, vuohiin ja vesiviljelylaitoksiin kohdistuvaa terveysvaaraa. Sivutuotteet saattavat sisältää tuotantoeläimille vaarallisia taudinaiheuttajia riippuen niiden alkuperästä. Tämän takia ne on käsiteltävä siten, ettei niiden käytöstä aiheudu vaaraa. Suomeen tuodaan luokan 2 sivutuotteita pääasiassa turkiseläinten rehuntuotannon raaka-aineeksi sekä lannoitevalmisteiksi. Vuonna 2013 luokan 2 sivutuotteita tuotiin Suomeen noin 4,6 miljoonaa kg. Todennäköisyys taudinaiheuttajien maahantuloon on suurin kesällä ja alkusyksystä, jolloin turkiseläinten rehuntarve ja siten myös raaka-aineiden tuonti on suurimmillaan. Raportissa selvitetään sivutuotteiden maahantuloa ja käyttöä Suomessa. Sivutuotteessa voi esiintyä taudinaiheuttajia, jos käsittelyprosessissa on puutteita, käsittely epäonnistuu tai sivutuote kontaminoituu käsittelyn jälkeen. Käsittelemättömiä luokan 2 sivutuotteita ei ole tuotu Suomeen selvityksen aikana. Ulkomailla tehdystä käsittelystä ei ole tarkempaa tietoa saatavilla. Suomalaisissa käsittelylaitoksissa on ilmennyt puutteita. Suoraa kontaktia sivutuotteesta tuotantoeläimiin saattaa selkeimmin syntyä sekatiloilla, joilla on sekä turkis- että tuotantoeläimiä. Sekatiloja on Suomessa kuitenkin hyvin vähän (30 kpl). Muussa tapauksessa tartunta voi tapahtua epäsuoran kontaktin kautta, pääasiassa vektorien, fomiittien, valumien tai tuulen välityksellä.
  • Cuthbertson, Daniel J.; Koskinen, Juha; Brown, Emily; Magnussen, Costan G.; Hutri-Kahonen, Nina; Sabin, Matthew; Tossavainen, Paivi; Jokinen, Eero; Laitinen, Tomi; Viikari, Jorma; Raitakari, Olli T.; Juonala, Markus (2021)
    Aims To investigate the association between overweight/obesity and fatty liver index (FLI) on the odds of incident prediabetes/type 2 diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 2020 participants after 10 years follow up. Methods At baseline (in 2001) 2020 participants, males and females, aged 24-39 years, were stratified according to body mass index (BMI), normal weight (= 25-= 30 kg/m(2)) and FLI (as high FLI >= 60 or low FLI
  • Kiss, Boldizsar; Fekete-Györ, Alexandra; Szakal-Toth, Zsofia; Parkanyi, Anna; Jenei, Zsigmond; Nyeki, Peter; Becker, David; Molnar, Levente; Ruzsa, Zoltan; Der, Gabor; Kovacs, Enikö; Pilecky, David; Geller, Laszlo; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Merkely, Bela; Zima, Endre (2021)
    Introduction: Sudden cardiac death is one of the most significant cardiovascular causes of death worldwide. Although there have been immense methodological and technical advances in the field of cardiopulmonary resuscitation and following intensive care in the last decade, currently there are only a few validated risk-stratification scoring systems for the quick and reliable estimation of the mortality risk of these patients at the time of admission to the intensive care unit. Objective: Our aim was to correlate the mortality prediction risk points calculated by CardShock Risk Score (CSRS) and modified (m) CSRS based on the admission data of the post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS) patients. Methods: The medical records of 172 out-of-hospital resuscitated cardiac arrest patients, who were admitted at the Heart and Vascular Centre of Semmelweis University, were screened retrospectively. Out of the 172 selected patients, 123 were eligible for inclusion to calculate CSRS and mCSRS. Based on CSRS score, we generated three different groups of patients, with scores 1 to 3, 4 to 6, and 7+, respectively. Mortality data of the groups were compared by log-rank test. Results: Mean age of the patients was 63.6 years (69% male), the cause of sudden cardiac death was acut coronary syndrome in 80% of the cases. The early and late mortality was predicted by neurological status, serum lactate level, renal function, initial rhythm, and the need of catecholamines. Using mCSRS, a significant survival difference was proven in between the groups "1-3" vs "4-6" (p Conclusion: Compared to the CSRS, the mCSRS expanded with the 2 additional weighting points differentiates more specifically the low-moderate and high survival groups in the PCAS patient population treated in our institute.
  • Cuthbertson, Daniel J.; Brown, Emily; Koskinen, Juha; Magnussen, Costan G.; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Sabin, Matthew; Tossavainen, Päivi; Jokinen, Eero; Laitinen, Tomi; Viikari, Jorma; Raitakari, Olli T.; Juonala, Markus (2019)
    Background & Aims We aimed to determine how childhood body mass index and metabolic health, along with the change in body mass index between childhood and adulthood, determine the risk of adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Methods Data from 2020 participants aged 3-18 years at baseline, followed up 31 years later, were examined to assess the utility of four childhood metabolic phenotypes (Metabolic Groups I: normal body mass index, no metabolic disturbances; II: normal body mass index, one or more metabolic disturbances; III: overweight/obese, no metabolic disturbances; IV: overweight/obese, one or more metabolic disturbances) and four life-course adiposity phenotypes (Adiposity Group 1: normal child and adult body mass index; 2, high child, normal adult body mass index; 3, normal child body mass index, high adult body mass index; 4, high child and adult body mass index) in predicting adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Results The risk for adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was similar across all four groups after adjustment for age, sex, lifestyle factors and adult body mass index. Risk of adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was not increased among individuals overweight/obese in childhood but non-obese in adulthood. In contrast, overweight or obese adults, irrespective of their youth body mass index status, had similar to eight-fold to 10-fold increased risk (P <0.001). Conclusions Childhood overweight/obesity, not metabolic health, is associated with increased risk for adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. However, the increased risk associated with childhood overweight/obesity can be largely removed by obtaining a normal body mass index by adulthood.
  • Ikonen, Juha (Helsingin yliopisto, 2018)
    Study research how finnish farmers react to risk. Outcome is that finnish farmers are in average risk averse, and they weight lower probabilities more than high. Questionnaire was sent to 5 000 farmers, which 820 farmers sent their answer. Questionnaire included questions related to principal component analysis to confirm reliability. After analysis there were to principal components, which were compared in regression analysis with risk parameters alfa (value function parameter) and gamma (weighting function) with farmer's background information. Two principal components were not significant when alfa or gamma was dependent variable. Production sector was significant variable when weighting function parameter gamma acted as dependent variable. Age, amount of field owned or farms location did not have any meaning in attitudes towards risk. Study research how finnish farmers react to risk. Outcome is that finnish farmers are in average risk averse, and they weight lower probabilities more than high. Questionnaire was sent to 5 000 farmers, which 820 farmers sent their answer. Questionnaire included questions related to principal component analysis to confirm reliability. After analysis there were to principal components, which were compared in regression analysis with risk parameters alfa (value function parameter) and gamma (weighting function) with farmer's background information. Two principal components were not significant when alfa or gamma was dependent variable. Production sector was significant variable when weighting function parameter gamma acted as dependent variable. Age, amount of field owned or farms location did not have any meaning in attitudes towards risk.
  • Oppong Adomaa, Angelica (Helsingfors universitet, 2014)
    This study examines the impact of forest industry securities on the portfolio risk in the frame of portfolio theory, and performs comparison of international forest industry enterprises as investment objects by using methods of fundamental analysis. During the past decade the global balance of forest industry has been shifting. While the demand for forest industry products in Western countries has been declining, the total demand for forest industry products on the global level has been growing. The growth of total demand has been generated by emerging markets. In Finland forest industry has been considered as a steady industry sector, which has been rewarding investors with stable profits. The previous researches show that compared to the average risk of securities, forest industry securities tend to have a lower risk. The objective of this study is to examine the geographical diversification of forest industry securities and its benefits to the risk in a Finnish stock portfolio between 2003 and 2013. The theoretical framework of this study includes portfolio theory and fundamental analysis. The principal aim of portfolio theory is to maximize expected return for a given amount of risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given level of expected return. The risk is interpreted as variance of portfolio expected returns. By choosing securities which have only very little correlation with each other we obtain the best diversification benefits, hence minimize portfolio risk. Fundamental analysis provided key indicators for analyzing economic preconditions of the companies which reflected efficiency, solvency and market liquidity. The portfolio risk was calculated from a market portfolio, which included forest industry securities from five alternative countries; Finland, Germany, USA, Latin America, China. After including the securities to the portfolio their weight was optimized. The market portfolio was represented by OMXH CAP -return index as it consists of a weighted sum of every asset traded at Helsinki Stock Exchange, hence is perfectly diversified portfolio. The results showed that in the geographical comparison the German forest industry stocks provided the best diversification benefits. Including German forest industry stocks to a Finnish market portfolio decreased portfolio risk by 2.77 %, where the forest industry stocks of other countries where able to decrease portfolio risk less than 1 %. Compared to other countries, German forest industry stocks had the smallest correlation with OMXH CAP -return index. Performing fundamental analysis of forest industry companies on a country level did no provide explicit results what comes to the investment attractiveness as financial key indicators of companies had considerable fluctuation within a country.
  • Sahlberg, Eero (Helsingin yliopisto, 2018)
    This thesis examines underlying causes of customer churn in the Finnish insurance market. Using individual data on moving insurance customers, econometric modeling is conducted to find significant relations between observed customer characteristics and behavior, and the probability to churn. A subscription-based business gains revenue not only from new sales but more importantly from automatic renewals of existing customers, i.e. retention. Significant drops in retention are important to understand for the insurer in order to not lose profit. Churn is an antonym for retention. A change of address – or moving homes – is an event around which churn rates spike, as it is a time when all address-specific subscriptions (electricity, internet, etc.) need to be proactively renewed by the consumer. There were one million moving individuals in 2016, as reported by Posti. This means that a significant share of an insurer’s customers are at a heightened risk to churn, with an address change being the common denominator. This thesis asks which customer characteristics and experiences significantly either increase or decrease the probability of a customer either changing their home insurance or churning completely around the time of their move. Insurance literature such as Hillson & Murray-Webster (2007) and Vaughan (1996) are reviewed to present the nature of risk, the insurance mechanism and the modern insurance business model. An annual report by Finance Finland (2017) provides accounting data via which the Finnish market situation is presented, while data and reports by Posti (2016; 2017a; 2017b) provide the numbers and facts regarding Finnish movers. Churn modeling is based on 20th century discrete choice theory, literature of which is reviewed, most notably by Nobel-laureate Daniel McFadden (1974; 2000). Also presented are modern applications of choice theory into churn problems, such as Madden et al (1999). The empirical section of the thesis consists of data presentation, model construction and evaluation and finally discussion of the results. The final sample of customer data consists of 24 230 observations with 21 variables. Following Madden et al (1999) and with help from Cox (1958) and McFadden (1974), binomial logistic regression models are constructed to relate the probability of churning with the specified variables. It is found that customer data can be used to predict churn among movers. Significant weights are found for variables denoting the size of a customer’s insurance portfolio as well as customer age and the duration of customership. Also the presence of personal insurance products and contact with one’s insurer notably affect retention positively. Younger segments and customers with implications of lower income (with fewer insurance products, more payment installments) exhibit a significantly increased probability of churning.
  • Kulp-Tåg, Sofie (Svenska handelshögskolan, 2008)
    Economics and Society
    Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.
  • Kuikko, Janne (2008)
    The investment atmosphere has changed significantly due to the European integration that took place in the 21st century. Thus there has been a need to chart the prevailing risks more carefully. Special attention has been given to risk measures in particular. The focus has been especially on static risk measures, since significant problems have been detected in the application of dynamic risk measures. Attention is paid also on the coherency of risk measure, and the terms of a coherent risk measure are determined. We will adopt a mean-variance approach in this study because it is still common to use the portfolio variance (standard deviation) as a measure for risk, although the concept of market portfolio dating back to the times of Harry Markowitz has been perceived as too much of a sweeping single variable that would hold all risk information occurring in the prevailing market. So models, which use several different variables for measuring risk have been developed. These models attempt to “suck in” exhaustively all risk-information available in the market. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) functions as a starting point. APT is in principle the first multi-factor model introduced, but it presents the used variables in a very limited manner. Later on, the qualifiers in multi-factor models have been specified, and special attention has been given to defining and choosing the variables. Various theories, which try to model the real activities of the finance market, have been used to justify the choice of variables. Hence, multi-factor models concentrate above all on the choice of variables. These variables have mainly been chosen according to macroeconomic, fundamental and statistical grounds. Macroeconomic models concentrate on explaining the dependency between external forces of the economy and asset returns. Fundamental models on the other hand believe that asset returns are determined mainly based on company-specific factors, and statistical models estimate variables from the historical return development of a single asset. Two fundamental models are described more carefully, a 3-factor model by Fama and French (1993) and a 4-factor model by Carhart (1997). By comparing the explanatory powers of these three different models we can deduct which model can best explain the asset returns and consequently the risk it includes. Connor (1995) gives a thorough study on the explanatory power of these models. After this, by comparing each of them separately with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) we can discover the optimal risk management instrument. This specific comparison is done by Fletcher and Hillier (2002). The basic idea is therefore to study whether the variables used in multi-factor models include some additional information that single variable models cannot explain. Finally we end up with the conclusion that in certain conditions and with certain restriction, very realistic ones though, the explanation power of a multi-factor models is greater than in single-factor model (CAPM). Thus they include additional information about the prevailing risk compared to single-factor model and give more realistic, detailed and more reliable description of the risk involved with the asset or a portfolio.
  • Bernardo, Alexandre (Helsingin yliopisto, 2020)
    In insurance and reinsurance, heavy-tail analysis is used to model insurance claim sizes and frequencies in order to quantify the risk to the insurance company and to set appropriate premium rates. One of the reasons for this application comes from the fact that excess claims covered by reinsurance companies are very large, and so a natural field for heavy-tail analysis. In finance, the multivariate returns process often exhibits heavy-tail marginal distributions with little or no correlation between the components of the random vector (even though it is a highly correlated process when taking the square or the absolute values of the returns). The fact that vectors which are considered independent by conventional standards may still exhibit dependence of large realizations leads to the use of techniques from classical extreme-value theory, that contains heavy-tail analysis, in estimating an extreme quantile of the profit-and-loss density called value-at-risk (VaR). The need of the industry to understand the dependence between random vectors for very large values, as exemplified above, makes the concept of multivariate regular variation a current topic of great interest. This thesis discusses multivariate regular variation, showing that, by having multiple equivalent characterizations and and by being quite easy to handle, it is an excellent tool to address the real-world issues raised previously. The thesis is structured as follows. At first, some mathematical background is covered: the notions of regular variation of a tail distribution in one dimension is introduced, as well as different concepts of convergence of probability measures, namely vague convergence and $\mathbb{M}^*$-convergence. The preference in using the latter over the former is briefly discussed. The thesis then proceeds to the main definition of this work, that of multivariate regular variation, which involves a limit measure and a scaling function. It is shown that multivariate regular variation can be expressed in polar coordinates, by replacing the limit measure with a product of a one-dimensional measure with a tail index and a spectral measure. Looking for a second source of regular variation leads to the concept of hidden regular variation, to which a new hidden limit measure is associated. Estimation of the tail index, the spectral measure and the support of the limit measure are next considered. Some examples of risk vectors are next analyzed, such as risk vectors with independent components and risk vectors with repeated components. The support estimator presented earlier is then computed in some examples with simulated data to display its efficiency. However, when the estimator is computed with real-life data (the value of stocks for different companies), it does not seem to suit the sample in an adequate way. The conclusion is drawn that, although the mathematical background for the theory is quite solid, more research needs to be done when applying it to real-life data, namely having a reliable way to check whether the data stems from a multivariate regular distribution, as well as identifying the support of the limit measure.
  • Jin, Qi (Helsingfors universitet, 2013)
    The optimal harvesting for a set of even-aged Dahurian Larch (Larix gmelinii) stands located in Aershan area of the northeast of Inner Mongolia, China, are studied. The effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks (i.e. Siberian moth) on the optimal harvesting plan are also studied, and the comparison on these two cases, namely deterministic and stochastic, are analyzed. The simulation is based on an individual-tree diameter growth model, an individual-tree height model, and model for the tree mortality for the coming 5-year period. Combined with the simulation system, the optimization model modified from Hyytiäinen et al. (2005) is able to find the number of thinnings, intensity of thinning, type of thinning, subject to given rotation lengths. In even-aged management, the objective variable is the bare land value with 3.5% discount rate. In addition, a scenario approach is applied when simulating the effects of catastrophes, i.e., pest outbreaks. Stochasticity here is represented by a set of scenarios. The timing of an insect outbreak is random. In order to know the frequency of insect outbreak, an exponential model is applied. The numerical results indicate that the probability that an outbreak at epidemic level will occur within an interval of 5 years is about 0.39. Within a 10-year interval the probability is about 0.63. It is nearly certain that an outbreak at epidemic level occurs within 45 years. The optimal solutions are presented separately for deterministic and stochastic cases. For the deterministic case, the results indicate that high bare land values were associated with stands of high basal area, tree diameters and height. Typically, the higher the mean annual increment and the site quality, the higher the bare land value. Meanwhile, the results show that the optimal rotation may vary considerably (40-58 yrs) at 3.5% interest rate depending on the initial stand state. In the stochastic case, considering the effect of catastrophe of pest outbreak, numerical results show that the optimum roation is shortened and the mean values of bare land value are about 14.8% to 25.6% lower compared with the deterministic case.
  • Jauho, Mikko (2019)
    Risk adopts an ambiguous position between health and illness/disease and is culturally salient in various health-related everyday practices. Previous research on risk experience has mostly focused on the illness/disease side of this risk ambiguity. Persons at risk have typically been defined as patients (of some kind) and their condition as a form of proto-illness. To allow for the cultural proliferation of health risk and to account for the health side of risk ambiguity, I chose to focus on elevated cholesterol, a condition both intensely medicalised and connected to the everyday practice of eating, among participants (n = 14) recruited from a consumer panel and approached not as patients, but as individuals concerned about their cholesterol. Utilising the biographical disruption framework developed by Bury, I show how the risk experience of my participants differed from the chronic illness experience. Instead of patients-in-waiting suffering from a proto-illness, they presented themselves as 'chronically healthy individuals' (Varul 2010), actively trying to avoid becoming patients through a responsible regimen of personal health care. The results call for a more nuanced approach to the risk experience, which accounts for both sides of the risk ambiguity.
  • Savolainen, Iina; Sirola, Anu; Kaakinen, Markus; Oksanen, Atte (2019)
    Gambling opportunities have increased rapidly during recent years. Previous research shows that gambling is a popular activity among youth, which may contribute to problem gambling. This study examined how social identification with online and offline peer groups associates with youth problem gambling behavior and if perceived social support buffers this relationship. Data were gathered with an online survey with 1212 American and 1200 Finnish participants between 15 and 25 years of age. Measures included the South Oaks Gambling Screen for problem gambling, and items for peer group identification and perceived social support. It was found that youth who identify strongly with offline peer groups were less likely to engage in problem gambling, while strong identification with online peer groups had the opposite effect. We also found that the associations between social identification and problem gambling behavior were moderated by perceived social support. Online peer groups may be a determinant in youth problem gambling. Focusing on offline peer groups and increasing social support can hold significant potential in youth gambling prevention.
  • Ollila, A.; Vikatmaa, Leena; Virolainen, J.; Vikatmaa, Pirkka; Leppaniemi, A.; Albäck, Anders; Salmenperä, Markku; Pettilä, Ville (2017)
    Background and Aims: Perioperative myocardial infarction is an underdiagnosed complication causing morbidity, mortality, and considerable costs. However, evidence of preventive and therapeutic options is scarce. We investigated the incidence and outcome of perioperative myocardial infarction in non-cardiac surgery patients in order to define a target population for future interventional trials. Material and Methods: We conducted a prospective single-center study on non-cardiac surgery patients aged 50years or older. High-sensitivity troponin T and electrocardiograph were obtained five times perioperatively. Perioperative myocardial infarction diagnosis required a significant troponin T release and an ischemic sign or symptom. Perioperative risk calculator was used for risk assessment. Results: Of 385 patients with systematic ischemia screening, 27 patients (7.0%) had perioperative myocardial infarction. The incidence was highest in vascular surgery19 of 172 patients (11.0%). The 90-day mortality was 29.6% in patients with perioperative myocardial infarction and 5.6% in non-perioperative myocardial infarction patients (p Conclusion: Perioperative myocardial infarction is a common complication associated with a 90-day mortality of 30%. The ability of the perioperative risk calculator to predict perioperative myocardial infarction was fair supporting its routine use.