Browsing by Subject "systemic risk"

Sort by: Order: Results:

Now showing items 1-4 of 4
  • Mikkola, Reija (Helsingfors universitet, 2012)
    Carbon capture and storage may become an inevitable means in mitigating climate change. However, it is a new technology involving a great deal of uncertainties. It is of utmost importance to understand on one hand, the risks caused by the technology and on the other, what is holding it back. This way unforeseen setbacks and environmental or other damage could be avoided. This thesis is a part of a wider research project on the risk governance of carbon dioxide capture and storage (RICCS). The present study gives additional insights to CCS risk analysis by diving into the stories that the media tells about the risks. I analyze the media coverage on the risks of CCS in the most wide spread newspapers of Norway and Finland with the aim of identifying what kind of risk framings are portrayed by the media; how strong is the presence of uncertainties and what kind of uncertainties are brought up. The media is seen as a mirror of public perception, but also one of the players influencing it. The possible effects that the analyzed articles could have on public perception of risks are discussed. The theoretical framework consists of theories of systemic risks, narrative policy analysis and framing of environmental risks in the media. I describe the nature of systemic risks. Then I move on to framing, more specifically how environmental risks are framed in the media and how it can effect public perception. After this I explain how narrative analysis can be used as a tool for identifying framings. Then I describe Klinke and Renn's Prometheus theory that I will use for analyzing the level of uncertainty in the framing of the articles and for discussing the implications of my findings. The results show that the risks caused by CCS are mainly the lock-in in fossil fuels, it's possible negative effect on developing renewable energy and environmental and health risks in general. The risks towards successful CCS seem to be mainly connected to funding, which connects to emissions' prices, the climate agreement and viability of investments. The differences between the two countries are quite related to the situation in which each country is in terms of CCS development. Norway is very active and pushing CCS forward. Consequently, the Norwegian articles are generally not very critical of the technology itself, but discuss what is holding it back. Generally, the Finnish articles bring out more aspects on the issue, both positive and negative, leaving quite an ambiguous image to the reader. The implications of my findings for future policy practices are quite extensive and therefore not very useful, since most policy recommendations seem more or less relevant. What is interesting though, is that based on my findings I could identify the turning points in which public perception is most relevant. These are: What kind of energy production is supported? Is CCS an acceptable mitigation means? Is the risk of leakage taken as severe? These issues represent turning points for the future of CCS technology and deliberative processes can be crucial when discussing them.
  • Ringsmuth, Andrew K.; Otto, Ilona M.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lahn, Glada; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Carter, Timothy R.; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Monasterolo, Irene; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Benzie, Magnus; Campiglio, Emanuele; Fronzek, Stefan; Gaupp, Franziska; Jarzabek, Lukasz; Klein, Richard J.T.; Knaepen, Hanne; Mechler, Reinhard; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Sillmann, Jana; Stuparu, Dana; West, Chris (Elsevier B.V., 2022)
    Climate risk management
    COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.
  • Pal, Ranjan; Psounis, Konstantinos; Crowcroft, Jon; Kelly, Frank; Hui, Pan; Tarkoma, Sasu; Kumar, Abhishek; Kelly, John; Chatterjee, Aritra; Golubchik, Leana; Sastry, Nishanth; Nag, Bodhibrata (2020)
    Service liability interconnections among globally networked IT- and IoT-driven service organizations create potential channels for cascading service disruptions worth billions of dollars, due to modern cyber-crimes such as DDoS, APT, and ransomware attacks. A natural question that arises in this context is: What is the likelihood of a cyber-blackout?, where the latter term is defined as the probability that all (or a major subset of) organizations in a service chain become dysfunctional in a certain manner due to a cyber-attack at some or all points in the chain. The answer to this question has major implications to risk management businesses such as cyber-insurance when it comes to designing policies by risk-averse insurers for providing coverage to clients in the aftermath of such catastrophic network events. In this article, we investigate this question in general as a function of service chain networks and different cyber-loss distribution types. We show somewhat surprisingly (and discuss the potential practical implications) that, following a cyber-attack, the effect of (a) a network interconnection topology and (b) a wide range of loss distributions on the probability of a cyber-blackout and the increase in total service-related monetary losses across all organizations are mostly very small. The primary rationale behind these results are attributed to degrees of heterogeneity in the revenue base among organizations and the Increasing Failure Rate property of popular (i.i.d/non-i.i.d) loss distributions, i.e., log-concave cyber-loss distributions. The result will enable risk-averse cyber-riskmanagers to safely infer the impact of cyber-attacks in a worst-case network and distribution oblivious setting.