Helsinki Center of Economic Research (HECER) discussion papers

 

ISSN 1795-0562

Recent Submissions

  • Nelimarkka, Jaakko (HECER – Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 415
    News shocks about future productivity can be correctly inferred from a conventional VAR model only if information contained in observables is rich enough. This paper examines news shocks by means of a noncausal VAR model that recovers economic shocks from both past and future variation. As noncausality is implied by nonfundamentalness, the model solves the problem of insufficient information per se. By the impulse responses derived from the model, variables react to the anticipated structural shocks, which are identified by exploiting future dependence of investment with respect to productivity. In the U.S. economy, news shocks move investment and stock prices on impact, but these responses are likely affected by a parallel increase in productivity. News shocks are characterised by gradual diffusion to productivity and generate smooth reactions of forward-looking variables.
  • Hämäläinen, Saara (HECER – Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 414
    We consider a price search model with gradual information arrival and deadlines to study how consumers search within and across stores during a single search spell. This renders the effects of search costs smooth and allows us to endogenize the intensity of competition in a new way that avoids both Diamond and Bertrand paradoxes. Firms can commit to any choice complexity levels. They determine the relative numbers of informed and uninformed consumers, which equal in equilibrium. The outcome is thus halfway from Diamond and Bertrand equilibria. Wider price awareness and advertizing improves welfare by discouraging the prominent firm's obfuscation.
  • Lindblad, Annika (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 413
  • Kanniainen, Vesa; Lehtonen, Juha-Matti (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 412
  • Harless, Patrick; Phan, William (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 411
  • Phan, William (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 410
  • Kanniainen, Vesa (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 409
  • Kanniainen, Vesa; Mellin, Ilkka (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 408
    The aggregate economic development of Finland and Sweden defined by the growth of the real Gross Domestic Products (GDPs) advanced in tandem for a long time. The current paper provides a descriptive statistical analysis producing stylized facts of the co-development of the two neighboring countries. Using various statistical techniques, the paper documents that the tandem is over. The paper identifies the break-up point in 2007 when the financial crisis started to culminate peaking in 2008-2009. The key test on the duration of the economic tandem will be provided by the forecast ability of the statistical vector autoregressive model to be identified and estimated for GDPs of the two countries. The stability of the model is used as a statistical criterion. A rich set of results on the comparative volatility and instability, the steepness of recessions, and the diverging welfare of the two economies are reported. In particular, it is estimated that the cumulative welfare gap between the countries, measured by the cumulative prediction error of the model in the post-tandem period 2008/1 - 2015/1 is 47.9 per cent.
  • Silvo, Aino (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2017)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 407
  • Puonti, Päivi (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2016)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 406
  • Ledyayeva, Svetlana (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2016)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 405
  • Salonen, Hannu (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2016)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 404
  • Gillanders, Robert; Neselevska, Olga (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2016)
    HECER, Discussion Paper, No. 403
  • Huotari, Antti (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2016)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 402
  • Halko, Marja-Liisa; Miettinen, Topi (HECER, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, 2016)
    HECER, Discussion Paper No. 401