Evolutionary suicide through a non-catastrophic bifurcation : adaptive dynamics of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission

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Boldin , B & Kisdi , E 2016 , ' Evolutionary suicide through a non-catastrophic bifurcation : adaptive dynamics of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission ' Journal of mathematical biology , vol. 72 , no. 4 , pp. 1101-1124 . DOI: 10.1007/s00285-015-0945-5

Title: Evolutionary suicide through a non-catastrophic bifurcation : adaptive dynamics of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission
Author: Boldin, Barbara; Kisdi, Eva
Other contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Faculty of Science) (-2009)
University of Helsinki, Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Date: 2016-03
Language: eng
Number of pages: 24
Belongs to series: Journal of mathematical biology
ISSN: 0303-6812
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-015-0945-5
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/173651
Abstract: Evolutionary suicide is a riveting phenomenon in which adaptive evolution drives a viable population to extinction. Gyllenberg and Parvinen (Bull Math Biol 63(5):981-993, 2001) showed that, in a wide class of deterministic population models, a discontinuous transition to extinction is a necessary condition for evolutionary suicide. An implicit assumption of their proof is that the invasion fitness of a rare strategy is well-defined also in the extinction state of the population. Epidemic models with frequency-dependent incidence, which are often used to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections or the dynamics of infectious diseases within herds, violate this assumption. In these models, evolutionary suicide can occur through a non-catastrophic bifurcation whereby pathogen adaptation leads to a continuous decline of host (and consequently pathogen) population size to zero. Evolutionary suicide of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission can occur in two ways, with pathogen strains evolving either higher or lower virulence.
Subject: Adaptive dynamics
Evolutionary suicide
Non-catastrophic bifurcation
Transcritical bifurcation
Extinction
Virulence
Frequency-dependent incidence
DISEASE TRANSMISSION
SELF-EXTINCTION
TRADE-OFF
COEXISTENCE
POPULATION
HOST
ADAPTATION
VIRULENCE
PARASITES
TRAGEDY
111 Mathematics
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
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