Browsing by Author "Ylhäisi, Jussi"

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  • Ylhäisi, Jussi (Helsingin yliopisto, 2014)
    Estimates of future climate conditions are commonly based on output of climate models, which have several potential purposes of use in climate change adaptation problems. In this study, data from state-of-the-art global and regional climate models were analysed, together with their relevance for applications. Impact-specific aspects of projected future climate data were analysed in two studies, the first of which focused on Finnish crop production and the second on European road network. The other three studies had a more general focus and a global domain. In these papers, projected future changes in daily temperature variability and time-dependent development of uncertainty in climate model projections were studied. A more general viewpoint was to assess the effect of climate model development on the climate projections. More sophisticated and complex models imply more complex interactions within and between the model components. As a result, model spread in the 21st century climate change projections has increased on all time scales. Neither the extent of the reducible uncertainty, nor the means to reduce it, are known. Uncertainty in climate model projections varies with the variable, spatial scale and the statistics of interest. The effect of climate model development for annual mean climate projections is unsystematic and model-dependent, which causes multi-model mean climate projections to be mostly statistically indistinguishable between three climate model generations. Conventional analysis methods used for multi-model ensembles do not fully exploit the superior process-understanding which is present in the improved climate models. The utility of climate models varies with the specific adaptation problem and also other information sources are often needed. For crop production in Finland, changes in water availability in the future climate are important, whereas the expected changes in climatic factors only have a secondary importance compared to process understanding when estimating future conditions of European road network. Still, the prevailing uncertainty in climate model simulations should not prevent adaptation decisions from being made, as uncertainty estimates are expected to remain comparable despite model improvement.
  • Ylhäisi, Jussi (Helsingin yliopisto, 2009)
    Alueellisten ilmastomallien vaakasuuntainen erottelukyky on globaaleja malleja huomattavasti tarkempi, minkä vuoksi niillä on useita käyttökohteita ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusten arvioinnissa. Tässä Pro Gradu – työssä tutkittiin alueellisten ilmastomallien tuottamia sademääräsimulaatioita sekä sadehavaintoaineistoja Euroopassa. Aineistona käytettiin ENSEMBLES-hankkeen tarjoamia 10 alueellista ilmastosimulaatiota, kahta hilamuotoista havaintoaineistoa sekä Ilmatieteen laitoksen sadeasemahavaintoja. Aineisto oli päiväkohtaista. Vuositasolla ilmastomallit ovat pääsääntöisesti sademäärää yliennustavia, mutta harha vaihtelee alueiden ja vuodenaikojen kesken. Osa tästä harhasta selittyy kuitenkin sillä, että havaintoaineistoihin sisältyy tyypillisesti sademäärän mittaustapahtumasta aiheutuva virhe. Alueellisten simulaatioiden harha pyritään minimoimaan kun halutaan kvantifioida tulevaisuuden sademääriä ilmastomallitulosten avulla. Tutkimuksessa sovellettiin tähän tarkoitettua empiiristä korjausmenetelmää tapauskohtaisella testialueella Suomessa. Korjausmenetelmä huomioi sadetapahtumien harhan niiden intensiteetin mukaan, jolloin se periaatteessa soveltuu paremmin myös rankkasateiden korjaamiseen. Korjausmenetelmässä harhan riippuvuus sadetapahtuman intensiteetistä oletetaan skenaariojaksolla samaksi kuin vertailujaksolla. Edellytyksenä korjausmenetelmän käytölle on se, että sadetapahtumien intensiteettijakauma simulaatioaineistoissa on kohtuullisen lähellä havaittua jakaumaa. Korjausmenetelmä parantaa sademäärän vuodenaikaiskeskiarvoja tarkastelualueella vertailujaksolla, vuoden kokonaissadekertymän harhan suuruus aineiston keskiarvossa on vain 7 mm. Koska sadetapahtumien intensiteettijakauma muuttuu simulaatioissa vertailu- ja skenaariojaksojen välillä, korjausmenetelmä vaikuttaa kuitenkin sademäärän muutoksen suuruuteen. Lisäksi menetelmän vaikutus sademäärän muutokseen jakautuu epätasaisesti sadetapahtuman intensiteetistä riippuen: menetelmä pienentää rankkasateiden kertymien muutosta, mutta kasvattaa sitä tavallisten sadetapahtumien osalta. Rankkasadetapahtumien erilliskäsittely korjausmenetelmässä aiheuttaa sen, että korjatusta sadetapahtumien intensiteettijakaumasta tulee epäjatkuva riippumatta siitä, mikä tarkastelujakso on kyseessä. Tässä työssä käytetty korjausmenetelmä ei ole ainoa laatuaan, perinteisesti mallitulosten korjaamiseen on käytetty vakiokertoimiin perustuvaa menetelmää kaikille sadetapahtumille. Korjausmenetelmien testaaminen on monien sovellusten kannalta tärkeää, mutta parhaan menetelmän löytäminen ei ole yksiselitteisen helppoa. Globaaleihin malleihin verrattuna alueellisten ilmastomallien ja korjausmenetelmien käyttö aiheuttavat molemmat ylimääräisen epävarmuuslähteen ilmastosimulaatioihin.
  • Ylhäisi, Jussi (Helsingin yliopisto, 2006)
    In Tanzania, indigenous forests can still be found whose existence is based on the management systems of precolonial society. This study covers material from over 900 forests. There are similar types of forests elsewhere in Africa, and similar forests can also be found in indigenous cultures on every continent. In this study they are called traditionally protected forests (TPFs). They have a high level of endemism and a rich biodiversity. The field study was carried out during the years 1997-2003 using participatory methods. An active debate is going on concerning the capacity of local communities to manage their environment. The role of indigenous people and their institutions in the development of the physical environment is a central issue in the debate. This study discusses the opportunities that the local people have had to decide on how to conserve, maintain, utilise, and manage their environment during different political periods. The study explains what kinds of changes have taken place in these forests and institutions in northeastern Tanzania among the matrilinear Zigua and patrilinear Gweno ethnic groups. About 2% of the land area of the communities was still protected by the precolonial structures. The communities have established their protection systems for different reasons, not only because of their beliefs but also because of different secular and clearly environmentally motivated reasons. There are different TPF types. Less than half of them are directly related to spirituality, and more than half are not. In earlier research elsewhere, it has been commonly understood that spiritual reasons played the main role in the protection of these environments. This study is also part of the postcolonial geographical discussion on the precolonial landscape and environmental management which was started by Carl Sauer. In the Zigua case study villages, only two out of five first comer clans have performed rain rituals in the past 30 years. Many of the most respected sacred sites do not have a ritual maker or even a person who knows how to perform rituals any longer. The same is happening with male initiation rites. In all case study villages there have been illegal cuts in the TPFs, but variations can be seen between the communities. The number of those who neither respect indigenous regulations nor accept indigenous penalties is growing. Positive developments have also taken place. Nowadays, the Forest Act of 2002 is in effect, which works as a cornerstone of community-based land ownership and also allows elders to protect TPFs, and by-laws are created with the support of different projects. Moreover, during the field study it was found that many young people are ignorant about their village's TPF sites, but interested in learning about their history and values.