ElEvoHI : A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING

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Rollett , T , Moestl , C , Isavnin , A , Davies , J A , Kubicka , M , Amerstorfer , U V & Harrison , R A 2016 , ' ElEvoHI : A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING ' , Astrophysical Journal , vol. 824 , no. 2 , 131 . https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/824/2/131

Title: ElEvoHI : A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING
Author: Rollett, T.; Moestl, C.; Isavnin, A.; Davies, J. A.; Kubicka, M.; Amerstorfer, U. V.; Harrison, R. A.
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
Date: 2016-06-20
Language: eng
Number of pages: 11
Belongs to series: Astrophysical Journal
ISSN: 0004-637X
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/183626
Abstract: In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-phi, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to +/- 6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by approximate to 250 to +/- 53 km s(-1), depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.
Subject: solar-terrestrial relations
solar wind
Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
Sun: heliosphere
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS
2010 AUGUST 1
SOLAR-WIND
PROPAGATION BEHAVIOR
AERODYNAMIC DRAG
STEREO MISSION
ARRIVAL-TIME
EARTH
KINEMATICS
PARAMETERS
115 Astronomy, Space science
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