Discretionary fiscal policy in Vietnam over business cycles and inflation, 1990-2015

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http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:hulib-201706195073
Title: Discretionary fiscal policy in Vietnam over business cycles and inflation, 1990-2015
Author: Nguyen, Quang Minh
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political and Economic Studies
Publisher: Helsingfors universitet
Date: 2017
Language: eng
URI: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:hulib-201706195073
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/193688
Thesis level: master's thesis
Discipline: Talous- ja sosiaalihistoria
Economic and Social History
Ekonomisk och social historia
Abstract: This study examines the cyclicality of discretionary fiscal policy in Vietnam using annual time series from 1990 to 2015. The change in cyclically adjusted balance (fiscal impulse) is utilized as the indicator of active fiscal action, while the output gap as the proxy for business cycle. Evidence shows discretionary fiscal policy follows a procyclical trend over business cycles, but reversed since 2008. In addition, discretionary fiscal policy is more procyclical during recessions than in booms. Finally, discretionary fiscal policy tends to react to inflation in a stabilizing way, i.e., contractive after inflation surges and expansive after inflation dives. This suggests that Vietnam has been using discretionary fiscal policy to stabilize general price level rather than output cycles.
Subject: discretionary fiscal policy
inflation
business cycles


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