Utilizing a cellular automaton model to explore the influence of coastal flood adaptation strategies on Helsinki's urbanization patterns

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/198019

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Votsis , A 2017 , ' Utilizing a cellular automaton model to explore the influence of coastal flood adaptation strategies on Helsinki's urbanization patterns ' , Computers, Environment and Urban Systems , vol. 64 , pp. 344-355 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.04.005

Title: Utilizing a cellular automaton model to explore the influence of coastal flood adaptation strategies on Helsinki's urbanization patterns
Author: Votsis, Athanasios
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Faculty of Science
Date: 2017
Language: eng
Number of pages: 12
Belongs to series: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
ISSN: 0198-9715
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/198019
Abstract: A cellular automaton model (SLEUTH-3r) is utilized to explore the impacts of coastal flood risk management strategies on the urbanization parameters of Helsinki's metropolitan area, at a 50-m spatial resolution by 2040. The current urbanization trend is characterized by the consolidation of existing built-up land and loss of inter- spersed green spaces, whereas the most intense growth is forecast inside the coastal flood risk areas. This base- line is compared to strategies that test various responses of the planning system to real estate market forces and the spatial distribution of flood risks. A set of scenarios translates property price effects of flood risk information into various attraction-repulsion areas in and adjacent to the floodplain, while a second set explores varying de- grees of restricting new growth in the flood risk zones without reference to the housing market. The simulations indicate that growth under all scenarios is distributed in a more fragmented manner relative to the baseline, which can be interpreted favorably regarding house prices and increased access to ecosystem ser- vices, although the indirect effects should also be considered. Demand for coastal flood-safe properties does not appear to automatically translate to refocusing of development toward those areas, unless planning interven- tions encourage this redistribution. The character of the planning system with respect to market drivers and the spatial distribution of risks and amenities is thus important. A mixture of market-based measures and moderate zoning interventions may be preferable for flood risk management and provide the necessary precision for adap- tation strategies.
Subject: 519 Social and economic geography
Urban growth scenarios
1172 Environmental sciences
Flood risk management
Adaptation strategy
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