A new methodology to assess the performance and uncertainty of source apportionment models II : The results of two European intercomparison exercises

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Belis , C A , Karagulian , F , Amato , F , Almeida , M , Artaxo , P , Beddows , D C S , Bernardoni , V , Bove , M C , Carbone , S , Cesari , D , Contini , D , Cuccia , E , Diapouli , E , Eleftheriadis , K , Favez , O , El Haddad , I , Harrison , R M , Hellebust , S , Hovorka , J , Jang , E , Jorquera , H , Kammermeier , T , Karl , M , Lucarelli , F , Mooibroek , D , Nava , S , Nojgaard , J K , Paatero , P , Pandolfi , M , Perrone , M G , Petit , J E , Pietrodangelo , A , Pokorna , P , Prati , P , Prevot , A S H , Quass , U , Querol , X , Saraga , D , Sciare , J , Sfetsos , A , Valli , G , Vecchi , R , Vestenius , M , Yubero , E & Hopke , P K 2015 , ' A new methodology to assess the performance and uncertainty of source apportionment models II : The results of two European intercomparison exercises ' Atmospheric Environment , vol. 123 , pp. 240-250 . DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.10.068

Title: A new methodology to assess the performance and uncertainty of source apportionment models II : The results of two European intercomparison exercises
Author: Belis, C. A.; Karagulian, F.; Amato, F.; Almeida, M.; Artaxo, P.; Beddows, D. C. S.; Bernardoni, V.; Bove, M. C.; Carbone, S.; Cesari, D.; Contini, D.; Cuccia, E.; Diapouli, E.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Favez, O.; El Haddad, I.; Harrison, R. M.; Hellebust, S.; Hovorka, J.; Jang, E.; Jorquera, H.; Kammermeier, T.; Karl, M.; Lucarelli, F.; Mooibroek, D.; Nava, S.; Nojgaard, J. K.; Paatero, P.; Pandolfi, M.; Perrone, M. G.; Petit, J. E.; Pietrodangelo, A.; Pokorna, P.; Prati, P.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Quass, U.; Querol, X.; Saraga, D.; Sciare, J.; Sfetsos, A.; Valli, G.; Vecchi, R.; Vestenius, M.; Yubero, E.; Hopke, P. K.
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Institute of Biotechnology (-2009)
Date: 2015-12
Language: eng
Number of pages: 11
Belongs to series: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 1352-2310
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/203746
Abstract: The performance and the uncertainty of receptor models (RMs) were assessed in intercomparison exercises employing real-world and synthetic input datasets. To that end, the results obtained by different practitioners using ten different RMs were compared with a reference. In order to explain the differences in the performances and uncertainties of the different approaches, the apportioned mass, the number of sources, the chemical profiles, the contribution-to-species and the time trends of the sources were all evaluated using the methodology described in Bells et al. (2015). In this study, 87% of the 344 source contribution estimates (SCEs) reported by participants in 47 different source apportionment model results met the 50% standard uncertainty quality objective established for the performance test. In addition, 68% of the SCE uncertainties reported in the results were coherent with the analytical uncertainties in the input data. The most used models, EPA-PMF v.3, PMF2 and EPA-CMB 8.2, presented quite satisfactory performances in the estimation of SCEs while unconstrained models, that do not account for the uncertainty in the input data (e.g. APCS and FA-MLRA), showed below average performance. Sources with well-defined chemical profiles and seasonal time trends, that make appreciable contributions (>10%), were those better quantified by the models while those with contributions to the PM mass close to 1% represented a challenge. The results of the assessment indicate that RMs are capable of estimating the contribution of the major pollution source categories over a given time window with a level of accuracy that is in line with the needs of air quality management. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Subject: Source apportionment
Receptor models
Intercomparison exercise
Model performance indicators
Model uncertainty
Particulate matter
PM SOURCE APPORTIONMENT
PARTICULATE MATTER
RECEPTOR MODELS
AIR-QUALITY
POLLUTION
AEROSOLS
AREA
114 Physical sciences
1172 Environmental sciences
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