Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/234838

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Moestl , C , Amerstorfer , T , Palmerio , E , Isavnin , A , Farrugia , C J , Lowder , C , Winslow , R M , Donnerer , J M , Kilpua , E K J & Boakes , P D 2018 , ' Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE ' , Space Weather , vol. 16 , no. 3 , pp. 216-229 . https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001735

Title: Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE
Author: Moestl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.; Palmerio, E.; Isavnin, A.; Farrugia, C. J.; Lowder, C.; Winslow, R. M.; Donnerer, J. M.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Boakes, P. D.
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
Date: 2018-03
Language: eng
Number of pages: 14
Belongs to series: Space Weather
ISSN: 1542-7390
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/234838
Abstract: Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3-D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward-pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof-of-concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B-z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three-Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun-Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9-13 July 2013. Three-Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3-D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left-handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30 degrees and a deflection angle of 20 degrees is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation.
Subject: coronal mass ejections
magnetic flux ropes
space weather prediction
forward modeling
geomagnetic storms
solar wind
MAGNETIC-FIELD
SOLAR-WIND
SPACE WEATHER
EARTH
EVOLUTION
MESSENGER
CLOUDS
DST
INSTRUMENT
DYNAMICS
115 Astronomy, Space science
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