Changing Seasonal Rainfall Distribution With Climate Directs Contrasting Impacts at Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in the Western Mediterranean Region

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dc.contributor.author Montaldo, Nicola
dc.contributor.author Oren, Ram
dc.date.accessioned 2018-08-23T12:29:01Z
dc.date.available 2018-08-23T12:29:01Z
dc.date.issued 2018-06
dc.identifier.citation Montaldo , N & Oren , R 2018 , ' Changing Seasonal Rainfall Distribution With Climate Directs Contrasting Impacts at Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in the Western Mediterranean Region ' , Earth's future , vol. 6 , no. 6 , pp. 841-856 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000843
dc.identifier.other PURE: 115237103
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 0c77a28c-d7fd-4718-84e0-b67aa502d74d
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000437831400006
dc.identifier.other Scopus: 85049568191
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0002-5654-1733/work/47806002
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/239095
dc.description.abstract Over the past century, climate change has been reflected in altered precipitation regimes worldwide. Because evapotranspiration is sensitive to both water availability and atmospheric demand for water vapor, it is essential to assess the likely consequences of future changes of these climate variables to evapotranspiration and, thus, runoff. We propose a simplified approach for annual evapotranspiration predictions, based on seasonal evapotranspiration estimates, accounting for the strong seasonality of meteorological conditions typical of Mediterranean climate, still holding the steady state assumption of basin water balance at mean annual scale. Sardinian runoff decreased over the 1975-2010 period by more than 40% compared to the preceding 1922-1974 period. Most of annual runoff in Sardinian basins is produced by winter precipitation, a wet season with relatively high evaporation rates. We derived linear seasonal evapotranspiration responses to seasonal precipitation, and, in turn, a relationship between the parameters of the linear functions and the seasonal vapor pressure deficit (D), accounting for residuals with basin properties. We then used these relationships to predict evapotranspiration and runoff using future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios, considering changing precipitation and D seasonality. We show that evapotranspiration is insensitive to D scenario changes. Although both evapotranspiration and runoff are sensitive to precipitation seasonality, future changes in runoff are related only to changes of winter precipitation, while evapotranspiration changes are related to those of spring and summer precipitation. Future scenario predicting further runoff decline is particularly alarming for the Sardinian water resources system, requiring new strategies and designs in water resources planning and management. en
dc.format.extent 16
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Earth's future
dc.rights cc_by_nc_nd
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject evapotranspiration
dc.subject climate change
dc.subject water yield
dc.subject precipitation seasonality
dc.subject basin water balance
dc.subject vapor pressure deficit
dc.subject MEAN ANNUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
dc.subject LAND-USE CHANGES
dc.subject PRECIPITATION TRENDS
dc.subject VEGETATION DYNAMICS
dc.subject CHANGE SCENARIOS
dc.subject ATMOSPHERIC CO2
dc.subject MODEL
dc.subject SARDINIA
dc.subject BALANCE
dc.subject BASIN
dc.subject 1172 Environmental sciences
dc.subject 1171 Geosciences
dc.title Changing Seasonal Rainfall Distribution With Climate Directs Contrasting Impacts at Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in the Western Mediterranean Region en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Department of Forest Sciences
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000843
dc.relation.issn 2328-4277
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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