Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/300797

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Holmberg , M , Aalto , T , Akujarvi , A , Arslan , A N , Bergstrom , I , Bottcher , K , Lahtinen , I , Makela , A , Markkanen , T , Minunno , F , Peltoniemi , M , Rankinen , K , Vihervaara , P & Forsius , M 2019 , ' Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests ' , Frontiers in plant science , vol. 10 , 343 . https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.00343

Titel: Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests
Författare: Holmberg, Maria; Aalto, Tuula; Akujarvi, Anu; Arslan, Ali Nadir; Bergstrom, Irina; Bottcher, Kristin; Lahtinen, Ismo; Makela, Annikki; Markkanen, Tiina; Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Rankinen, Katri; Vihervaara, Petteri; Forsius, Martin
Upphovmannens organisation: Department of Forest Sciences
Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences)
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
Forest Modelling Group
Datum: 2019-03-26
Språk: eng
Sidantal: 14
Tillhör serie: Frontiers in plant science
ISSN: 1664-462X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.00343
Permanenta länken (URI): http://hdl.handle.net/10138/300797
Abstrakt: Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981-2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.
Subject: forest growth
carbon sink
vegetation active period
JSBACH
PREBAS
model
continuous monitoring
webcam
GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION
LAND-COVER CHANGE
CLIMATE-CHANGE
TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE
INDICATORS
MANAGEMENT
CANADA
SUSTAINABILITY
BIODIVERSITY
ASSIMILATION
4112 Forestry
Referentgranskad: Ja
Licens: cc_by
Användningsbegränsning: openAccess
Parallelpublicerad version: publishedVersion


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