Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth

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dc.contributor.author Cailleret, Maxime
dc.contributor.author Dakos, Vasilis
dc.contributor.author Jansen, Steven
dc.contributor.author Robert, Elisabeth M.R.
dc.contributor.author Aakala, Tuomas
dc.contributor.author Amoroso, Mariano M.
dc.contributor.author Antos, Joe A.
dc.contributor.author Bigler, Christof
dc.contributor.author Bugmann, Harald
dc.contributor.author Caccianaga, Marco
dc.contributor.author Camarero, Jesus-Julio
dc.contributor.author Cherubini, Paolo
dc.contributor.author Goeya, Marie R.
dc.contributor.author Cufar, Katarina
dc.contributor.author Das, Adrian J.
dc.contributor.author Davi, Hendrik
dc.contributor.author Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo
dc.contributor.author Gillner, Sten
dc.contributor.author Haavik, Laurel J.
dc.contributor.author Hartmann, Henrik
dc.contributor.author Heres, Ana-Maria
dc.contributor.author Hultine, Kevin R.
dc.contributor.author Janda, Pavel
dc.contributor.author Kane, Jeffrey M.
dc.contributor.author Kharuk, Vlachelsav I.
dc.contributor.author Kitzberger, Thomas
dc.contributor.author Klein, Tamir
dc.contributor.author Levanic, Tom
dc.contributor.author Linares, Juan-Carlos
dc.contributor.author Lombardi, Fabio
dc.contributor.author Mäkinen, Harri
dc.contributor.author Meszaros, Ilona
dc.contributor.author Metsaranta, Juha M.
dc.contributor.author Oberhuber, Walter
dc.contributor.author Papadopoulos, Andreas
dc.contributor.author Petritan, Any Mary
dc.contributor.author Rohner, Brigitte
dc.contributor.author Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel
dc.contributor.author Smith, Jeremy M.
dc.contributor.author Stan, Amanda B.
dc.contributor.author Stojanovic, Dejan B.
dc.contributor.author Laura Suarez, Maria
dc.contributor.author Svoboda, Miroslav
dc.contributor.author Trotsiuk, Volodymyr
dc.contributor.author Villalba, Ricardo
dc.contributor.author Westwood, Alana R.
dc.contributor.author Wyckoff, Peter H.
dc.contributor.author Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi
dc.date.accessioned 2019-04-12T10:30:02Z
dc.date.available 2019-04-12T10:30:02Z
dc.date.issued 2019-01-08
dc.identifier.citation Cailleret , M , Dakos , V , Jansen , S , Robert , E M R , Aakala , T , Amoroso , M M , Antos , J A , Bigler , C , Bugmann , H , Caccianaga , M , Camarero , J-J , Cherubini , P , Goeya , M R , Cufar , K , Das , A J , Davi , H , Gea-Izquierdo , G , Gillner , S , Haavik , L J , Hartmann , H , Heres , A-M , Hultine , K R , Janda , P , Kane , J M , Kharuk , V I , Kitzberger , T , Klein , T , Levanic , T , Linares , J-C , Lombardi , F , Mäkinen , H , Meszaros , I , Metsaranta , J M , Oberhuber , W , Papadopoulos , A , Petritan , A M , Rohner , B , Sanguesa-Barreda , G , Smith , J M , Stan , A B , Stojanovic , D B , Laura Suarez , M , Svoboda , M , Trotsiuk , V , Villalba , R , Westwood , A R , Wyckoff , P H & Martinez-Vilalta , J 2019 , ' Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth ' , Frontiers in plant science , vol. 9 , 1964 . https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
dc.identifier.other PURE: 121737692
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 2c546527-d392-4bb7-9983-49c93b6cb824
dc.identifier.other Scopus: 85062726358
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000455109300001
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0003-0160-6410/work/56402741
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/300854
dc.description.abstract Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms. en
dc.format.extent 14
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Frontiers in plant science
dc.rights cc_by
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject 4112 Forestry
dc.subject tree mortality
dc.subject ring-width
dc.subject forest
dc.subject biotic agents
dc.subject variance
dc.subject drought-induced tree
dc.subject CARBON-ISOTOPE DISCRIMINATION
dc.subject SCOTS PINE
dc.subject RING GROWTH
dc.subject HYDRAULIC DETERIORATION
dc.subject RECOVERY RATES
dc.subject tpping point
dc.subject forest trees
dc.subject climate
dc.subject death
dc.title Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Boreal forest dynamics and biodiversity research group
dc.contributor.organization Department of Forest Sciences
dc.contributor.organization Forest Ecology and Management
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
dc.relation.issn 1664-462X
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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