Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/301387

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Karjalainen , O , Aalto , J , Luoto , M , Westermann , S , Romanovsky , V E , Nelson , F E , Etzelmueller , B & Hjort , J 2019 , ' Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments ' , Scientific data , vol. 6 , 190037 . https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.37

Title: Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments
Author: Karjalainen, Olli; Aalto, Juha; Luoto, Miska; Westermann, Sebastian; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Etzelmueller, Bernd; Hjort, Jan
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Teaching and Learning Services
University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
University of Helsinki, Division of Urban Geography and Regional Studies
Date: 2019-03-12
Language: eng
Number of pages: 16
Belongs to series: Scientific data
ISSN: 2052-4463
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/301387
Abstract: Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses.
Subject: ALASKA PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
ACTIVE-LAYER THICKNESS
NORTH-CENTRAL ALASKA
CLIMATE-CHANGE
THERMAL STATE
SPATIAL-RESOLUTION
DEGRADATION
DYNAMICS
CMIP5
VARIABILITY
1172 Environmental sciences
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