Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/306468

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Tallavaara , M , Luoto , M , Korhonen , N , Järvinen , H & Seppä , H 2015 , ' Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum ' , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , vol. 112 , no. 27 , pp. 8232-8237 . https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1503784112

Title: Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum
Author: Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki
Other contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Philosophy, History, Culture and Art Studies 2010-2017
University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography
University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
University of Helsinki, INAR Physics
University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography



Date: 2015-07-07
Language: eng
Number of pages: 6
Belongs to series: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1503784112
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/306468
Abstract: The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, therewere almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.
Subject: hunter-gatherers
demography
niche modeling
climate change
Paleolithic
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
TEMPORAL FREQUENCY-DISTRIBUTIONS
LATE MOUSTERIAN PERSISTENCE
ICE-SHEET MODEL
INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY
PREHISTORIC DEMOGRAPHY
GENOME SEQUENCES
HUMAN-EVOLUTION
ARCTIC-CIRCLE
PART I
1171 Geosciences
114 Physical sciences
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
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