Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

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Aalto , J , Karjalainen , O , Hjort , J & Luoto , M 2018 , ' Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 45 , no. 10 , pp. 4889-4898 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007

Title: Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness
Author: Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J.; Luoto, M.
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography
University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography
Date: 2018-05-28
Language: eng
Number of pages: 10
Belongs to series: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8276
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/307286
Abstract: Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 +/- 2.8 x 10(6) km(2). This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.
Subject: ensemble modeling
permafrost
climate change
uncertainty
Arctic
ground thermal regime
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
CLIMATE-CHANGE
PERMAFROST REGION
SOUTHERN NORWAY
THERMAL REGIME
DYNAMICS
DEGRADATION
ICE
UNCERTAINTY
INSIGHTS
114 Physical sciences
1172 Environmental sciences
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