Aalto , J , Karjalainen , O , Hjort , J & Luoto , M 2018 , ' Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 45 , no. 10 , pp. 4889-4898 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007
Title: | Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness |
Author: | Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J.; Luoto, M. |
Contributor organization: | Department of Geosciences and Geography BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab |
Date: | 2018-05-28 |
Language: | eng |
Number of pages: | 10 |
Belongs to series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/307286 |
Abstract: | Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 +/- 2.8 x 10(6) km(2). This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback. |
Subject: |
ensemble modeling
permafrost climate change uncertainty Arctic ground thermal regime SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS CLIMATE-CHANGE PERMAFROST REGION SOUTHERN NORWAY THERMAL REGIME DYNAMICS DEGRADATION ICE UNCERTAINTY INSIGHTS 114 Physical sciences 1172 Environmental sciences |
Peer reviewed: | Yes |
Rights: | cc_by_nc_nd |
Usage restriction: | openAccess |
Self-archived version: | publishedVersion |
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