Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables

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Niskanen , A K J , Heikkinen , R K , Mod , H K , Väre , H & Luoto , M 2017 , ' Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables ' , Geografiska Annaler. Series A. Physical Geography , vol. 99 , no. 1 , pp. 2-14 . https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746

Title: Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables
Author: Niskanen, Annina K. J.; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Mod, Heidi K.; Väre, Henry; Luoto, Miska
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography
University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography
University of Helsinki, Finnish Museum of Natural History
University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography
Date: 2017-02
Language: eng
Number of pages: 13
Belongs to series: Geografiska Annaler. Series A. Physical Geography
ISSN: 0435-3676
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/307291
Abstract: Refugia, the sites preserving conditions reminiscent of suitable climates, are projected to be crucial for species in a changing climate, particularly at high latitudes. However, the knowledge of current locations of high-latitude refugia and particularly their ability to retain suitable conditions under future climatic changes is limited. Occurrences of refugia have previously been mainly assessed and modelled based solely on climatic features, with insufficient attention being paid to potentially important landscape-scale factors. Here, climate-only models and full' models incorporating topo-edaphic landscape-scale variables (radiation, soil moisture and calcareousness) were developed and compared for 111 arctic-alpine plant species in Northern Fennoscandia. This was done for both current and future climates to determine cells with resilient climatic suitability harbouring refugia. Our results show that topographic and edaphic landscape-scale predictors both significantly improve models of arctic-alpine species distributions and alter projections of refugia occurrence. The predictions of species-climate models ignore landscape-scale ecological processes and may thus provide inaccurate estimates of extinction risk and forecasts of refugia where species can persist under a changing climate.
Subject: Climate change
refugia
landscape-scale factor
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
CLIMATE-CHANGE
GLACIAL REFUGIA
PLANT DIVERSITY
IDENTIFYING REFUGIA
HABITAT MODELS
BIODIVERSITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
EUROPE
PATTERNS
1172 Environmental sciences
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