Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/308099

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Karsisto , V , Tijm , S & Nurmi , P 2017 , ' Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands ' , Weather and Forecasting , vol. 32 , no. 3 , pp. 991-1006 . https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0158.1

Title: Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands
Author: Karsisto, Virve; Tijm, Sander; Nurmi, Pertti
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
Date: 2017-06
Language: eng
Number of pages: 16
Belongs to series: Weather and Forecasting
ISSN: 0882-8156
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/308099
Abstract: High-quality road condition forecasts are a prerequisite for road authorities to ensure wintertime road safety. Harsh winter conditions can cause problems for traffic not only in countries where snowy winters are common but also in regions where the temperature drops below the freezing point occasionally. This study reports on the evaluation of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute's (KNMI) new road weather forecasting model by comparing it with the Finnish Meteorological Institute's (FMI) road weather model, both run for 321 Dutch road weather stations, four times daily (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC) during the test period, 15 January-28 February 2015. Road surface temperature forecasts by both models were evaluated against observations. The KNMI model produced slightly more accurate forecasts than the FMI model. The main reason for the difference is probably due to the optimization of the physical properties of the KNMI model for the Netherlands, whereas the FMI model is designed for quite different Finnish wintertime meteorological conditions. However, in general the road surface temperature forecasts were of quite comparable quality.
Subject: SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
MAINTENANCE
FORECASTS
114 Physical sciences
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