Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/309188

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Bartosova , A , Capell , R , Olesen , J E , Jabloun , M , Refsgaard , J C , Donnelly , C , Hyytiäinen , K , Pihlainen , S , Zandersen , M & Arheimer , B 2019 , ' Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea ' , Ambio , vol. 48 , no. 11 , pp. 1325-1336 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5

Title: Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea
Author: Bartosova, Alena; Capell, René; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Donnelly, Chantal; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Pihlainen, Sampo; Zandersen, Marianne; Arheimer, Berit
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
University of Helsinki, Department of Economics and Management
Date: 2019-11
Language: eng
Number of pages: 12
Belongs to series: Ambio
ISSN: 1654-7209
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/309188
Abstract: The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.
Subject: 1172 Environmental sciences
Baltic Sea Action Plan
E-HYPE
Hydrological modelling
Nutrient loads
Remedial measures
Water quality
WFD
WATER-QUALITY
MODEL
PREDICTIONS
PROJECTIONS
REDUCTION
SYSTEMS
INPUTS
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