Validity of the FINDRISC as a prediction tool for diabetes in a contemporary Norwegian population : a 10-year follow-up of the HUNT study

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dc.contributor.author Jolle, Anne
dc.contributor.author Midthjell, Kristian
dc.contributor.author Holmen, Jostein
dc.contributor.author Carlsen, Sven Magnus
dc.contributor.author Tuomilehto, Jaakko
dc.contributor.author Bjorngaard, Johan Håkon
dc.contributor.author Åsvold, Bjorn Olav
dc.date.accessioned 2020-01-30T12:08:01Z
dc.date.available 2020-01-30T12:08:01Z
dc.date.issued 2019-10
dc.identifier.citation Jolle , A , Midthjell , K , Holmen , J , Carlsen , S M , Tuomilehto , J , Bjorngaard , J H & Åsvold , B O 2019 , ' Validity of the FINDRISC as a prediction tool for diabetes in a contemporary Norwegian population : a 10-year follow-up of the HUNT study ' , BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care , vol. 7 , no. 1 , 000769 . https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000769
dc.identifier.other PURE: 131020910
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 39c7c529-83eb-4b80-a3e6-ed14214a0e0c
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000506187100054
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/310671
dc.description.abstract Objective The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) is a recommended tool for type 2 diabetes prediction. There is a lack of studies examining the performance of the current 0-26 point FINDRISC scale. We examined the validity of FINDRISC in a contemporary Norwegian risk environment. Research design and methods We followed 47 804 participants without known diabetes and aged >= 20 years in the HUNT3 survey (2006-2008) by linkage to information on glucose-lowering drug dispensing in the Norwegian Prescription Database (2004-2016). We estimated the C-statistic, sensitivity and specificity of FINDRISC as predictor of incident diabetes, as indicated by incident use of glucose-lowering drugs. We estimated the 10-year cumulative diabetes incidence by categories of FINDRISC. Results The C-statistic (95% CI) of FINDRISC in predicting future diabetes was 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78). FINDRISC >= 15 (the conventional cut-off value) had a sensitivity of 38% and a specificity of 90%. The 10-year cumulative diabetes incidence (95% CI) was 4.0% (3.8% to 4.2%) in the entire study population, 13.5% (12.5% to 14.5%) for people with FINDRISC >= 15 and 2.8% (2.6% to 3.0%) for people with FINDRISC = 15 had a positive predictive value of 13.5% and a negative predictive value of 97.2% for diabetes within the next 10 years. To approach a similar sensitivity as in the study in which FINDRISC was developed, we would have to lower the cut-off value for elevated FINDRISC to >= 11. This would yield a sensitivity of 73%, specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 7.7% and negative predictive value of 98.5%. Conclusions The validity of FINDRISC and the risk of diabetes among people with FINDRISC >= 15 is substantially lower in the contemporary Norwegian population than assumed in official guidelines. To identify similar to 3/4 of those developing diabetes within the next 10 years, we would have to lower the threshold for elevated FINDRISC to >= 11, which would label similar to 1/3 of the entire adult population as having an elevated FINDRISC necessitating a glycemia assessment. en
dc.format.extent 9
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care
dc.rights cc_by
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject IMPAIRED GLUCOSE-TOLERANCE
dc.subject RISK SCORE
dc.subject LIFE-STYLE
dc.subject PREVENTION
dc.subject MELLITUS
dc.subject QUESTIONNAIRE
dc.subject PREVALENCE
dc.subject DISEASE
dc.subject OBESITY
dc.subject TRENDS
dc.subject 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine
dc.subject 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health
dc.title Validity of the FINDRISC as a prediction tool for diabetes in a contemporary Norwegian population : a 10-year follow-up of the HUNT study en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Clinicum
dc.contributor.organization Department of Public Health
dc.contributor.organization University of Helsinki
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000769
dc.relation.issn 2052-4897
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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