Climate limitation at the cold edge : contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment

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Greiser , C , Hylander , K , Meineri , E , Luoto , M & Ehrlen , J 2020 , ' Climate limitation at the cold edge : contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment ' , Ecography , vol. 43 , no. 5 , pp. 637-647 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04490

Title: Climate limitation at the cold edge : contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment
Author: Greiser, Caroline; Hylander, Kristoffer; Meineri, Eric; Luoto, Miska; Ehrlen, Johan
Other contributor: University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)

Date: 2020-05
Language: eng
Number of pages: 11
Belongs to series: Ecography
ISSN: 0906-7590
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04490
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/311325
Abstract: The role of climate in determining range margins is often studied using species distribution models (SDMs), which are easily applied but have well-known limitations, e.g. due to their correlative nature and colonization and extinction time lags. Transplant experiments can give more direct information on environmental effects, but often cover small spatial and temporal scales. We simultaneously applied a SDM using high-resolution spatial predictors and an integral projection (demographic) model based on a transplant experiment at 58 sites to examine the effects of microclimate, light and soil conditions on the distribution and performance of a forest herb, Lathyrus vernus, at its cold range margin in central Sweden. In the SDM, occurrences were strongly associated with warmer climates. In contrast, only weak effects of climate were detected in the transplant experiment, whereas effects of soil conditions and light dominated. The higher contribution of climate in the SDM is likely a result from its correlation with soil quality, forest type and potentially historic land use, which were unaccounted for in the model. Predicted habitat suitability and population growth rate, yielded by the two approaches, were not correlated across the transplant sites. We argue that the ranking of site habitat suitability is probably more reliable in the transplant experiment than in the SDM because predictors in the former better describe understory conditions, but that ranking might vary among years, e.g. due to differences in climate. Our results suggest that L. vernus is limited by soil and light rather than directly by climate at its northern range edge, where conifers dominate forests and create suboptimal conditions of soil and canopy-penetrating light. A general implication of our study is that to better understand how climate change influences range dynamics, we should not only strive to improve existing approaches but also to use multiple approaches in concert.
Subject: boreal forest
canopy cover
demography
microclimate
range margin
soil
RANGE
NICHES
PLANTS
MICROCLIMATES
COLONIZATION
PREDICTION
DIVERSITY
ABUNDANCE
PINE
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
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