Climate limitation at the cold edge : contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment

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dc.contributor.author Greiser, Caroline
dc.contributor.author Hylander, Kristoffer
dc.contributor.author Meineri, Eric
dc.contributor.author Luoto, Miska
dc.contributor.author Ehrlen, Johan
dc.date.accessioned 2020-02-10T11:43:01Z
dc.date.available 2020-02-10T11:43:01Z
dc.date.issued 2020-05
dc.identifier.citation Greiser , C , Hylander , K , Meineri , E , Luoto , M & Ehrlen , J 2020 , ' Climate limitation at the cold edge : contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment ' , Ecography , vol. 43 , no. 5 , pp. 637-647 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04490
dc.identifier.other PURE: 131795574
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: ba2fa7f0-4010-4c6a-8e6d-9fc0f8ff9976
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000507380000001
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0001-6203-5143/work/70943706
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/311325
dc.description.abstract The role of climate in determining range margins is often studied using species distribution models (SDMs), which are easily applied but have well-known limitations, e.g. due to their correlative nature and colonization and extinction time lags. Transplant experiments can give more direct information on environmental effects, but often cover small spatial and temporal scales. We simultaneously applied a SDM using high-resolution spatial predictors and an integral projection (demographic) model based on a transplant experiment at 58 sites to examine the effects of microclimate, light and soil conditions on the distribution and performance of a forest herb, Lathyrus vernus, at its cold range margin in central Sweden. In the SDM, occurrences were strongly associated with warmer climates. In contrast, only weak effects of climate were detected in the transplant experiment, whereas effects of soil conditions and light dominated. The higher contribution of climate in the SDM is likely a result from its correlation with soil quality, forest type and potentially historic land use, which were unaccounted for in the model. Predicted habitat suitability and population growth rate, yielded by the two approaches, were not correlated across the transplant sites. We argue that the ranking of site habitat suitability is probably more reliable in the transplant experiment than in the SDM because predictors in the former better describe understory conditions, but that ranking might vary among years, e.g. due to differences in climate. Our results suggest that L. vernus is limited by soil and light rather than directly by climate at its northern range edge, where conifers dominate forests and create suboptimal conditions of soil and canopy-penetrating light. A general implication of our study is that to better understand how climate change influences range dynamics, we should not only strive to improve existing approaches but also to use multiple approaches in concert. en
dc.format.extent 11
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Ecography
dc.rights cc_by
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject boreal forest
dc.subject canopy cover
dc.subject demography
dc.subject microclimate
dc.subject range margin
dc.subject soil
dc.subject RANGE
dc.subject NICHES
dc.subject PLANTS
dc.subject MICROCLIMATES
dc.subject COLONIZATION
dc.subject PREDICTION
dc.subject DIVERSITY
dc.subject ABUNDANCE
dc.subject PINE
dc.subject 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
dc.title Climate limitation at the cold edge : contrasting perspectives from species distribution modelling and a transplant experiment en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
dc.contributor.organization Department of Geosciences and Geography
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04490
dc.relation.issn 0906-7590
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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