East European chironomid-based calibration model for past summer temperature reconstructions

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/312767

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Luoto , T P , Kotrys , B & Plociennik , M 2019 , ' East European chironomid-based calibration model for past summer temperature reconstructions ' , Climate Research , vol. 77 , no. 1 , pp. 63-76 . https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01543

Title: East European chironomid-based calibration model for past summer temperature reconstructions
Author: Luoto, Tomi P.; Kotrys, Bartosz; Plociennik, Mateusz
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme
Date: 2019
Language: eng
Number of pages: 14
Belongs to series: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936-577X
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/312767
Abstract: Understanding local patterns and large-scale processes in past climate necessitates a detailed network of temperature reconstructions. In this study, a merged temperature inference model using fossil chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae) datasets from Finland and Poland was constructed to fill the lack of an applicable training set for East European sites. The developed weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) inference model showed favorable performance statistics, suggesting that the model can be useful for downcore reconstructions. The combined calibration model includes 212 sites, 142 taxa, and a temperature gradient of 11.3-20.1 degrees C. The 2-component WA-PLS model has a cross-validated coefficient of determination of 0.88 and a root mean squared prediction error of 0.88 degrees C. We tested the new East European temperature transfer function in chironomid stratigraphies from a Finnish high-resolution short-core sediment record and a Polish paleolake (Zabieniec) covering the past similar to 20 000 yr. In the Finnish site, the chironomid-inferred temperatures correlated closely with the observed instrumental temperatures, showing improved accuracy compared to estimates by the original Finnish calibration model. In addition, the long-core reconstruction from the Polish site showed logical results in its general trends compared to existing knowledge on the past regional climate trends; however, it had distinct differences when compared with hemispheric climate oscillations. Hence, based on these findings, the new temperature model will enable more detailed examination of long-term temperature variability in Eastern Europe, and consequently, reliable identification of local and regional climate variability of the past.
Subject: Chironomidae
Climate reconstruction
Finland
Holocene
Late Glacial
Paleoclimate
Poland
Training set
Transfer function
AIR-TEMPERATURE
LATITUDINAL GRADIENT
INSECTA DIPTERA
INFERENCE MODEL
YOUNGER DRYAS
DATA-SET
HOLOCENE
LAKE
FINLAND
CLIMATE
1172 Environmental sciences
1171 Geosciences
114 Physical sciences
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