Luoto , T P , Kotrys , B & Plociennik , M 2019 , ' East European chironomid-based calibration model for past summer temperature reconstructions ' , Climate Research , vol. 77 , no. 1 , pp. 63-76 . https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01543
Title: | East European chironomid-based calibration model for past summer temperature reconstructions |
Author: | Luoto, Tomi P.; Kotrys, Bartosz; Plociennik, Mateusz |
Contributor organization: | Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences |
Date: | 2019 |
Language: | eng |
Number of pages: | 14 |
Belongs to series: | Climate Research |
ISSN: | 0936-577X |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01543 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/312767 |
Abstract: | Understanding local patterns and large-scale processes in past climate necessitates a detailed network of temperature reconstructions. In this study, a merged temperature inference model using fossil chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae) datasets from Finland and Poland was constructed to fill the lack of an applicable training set for East European sites. The developed weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) inference model showed favorable performance statistics, suggesting that the model can be useful for downcore reconstructions. The combined calibration model includes 212 sites, 142 taxa, and a temperature gradient of 11.3-20.1 degrees C. The 2-component WA-PLS model has a cross-validated coefficient of determination of 0.88 and a root mean squared prediction error of 0.88 degrees C. We tested the new East European temperature transfer function in chironomid stratigraphies from a Finnish high-resolution short-core sediment record and a Polish paleolake (Zabieniec) covering the past similar to 20 000 yr. In the Finnish site, the chironomid-inferred temperatures correlated closely with the observed instrumental temperatures, showing improved accuracy compared to estimates by the original Finnish calibration model. In addition, the long-core reconstruction from the Polish site showed logical results in its general trends compared to existing knowledge on the past regional climate trends; however, it had distinct differences when compared with hemispheric climate oscillations. Hence, based on these findings, the new temperature model will enable more detailed examination of long-term temperature variability in Eastern Europe, and consequently, reliable identification of local and regional climate variability of the past. |
Subject: |
Chironomidae
Climate reconstruction Finland Holocene Late Glacial Paleoclimate Poland Training set Transfer function AIR-TEMPERATURE LATITUDINAL GRADIENT INSECTA DIPTERA INFERENCE MODEL YOUNGER DRYAS DATA-SET HOLOCENE LAKE FINLAND CLIMATE 1172 Environmental sciences 1171 Geosciences 114 Physical sciences |
Peer reviewed: | Yes |
Usage restriction: | openAccess |
Self-archived version: | acceptedVersion |
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