Impacts of oil spills on Arctic marine ecosystems: A quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment perspective

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/313529

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Helle , I , Mäkinen , J A-E , Nevalainen , M K , Afenyo , M & Vanhatalo , J 2020 , ' Impacts of oil spills on Arctic marine ecosystems: A quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment perspective ' , Environmental Science & Technology , vol. 54 , no. 4 , pp. 2112-2121 . https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b07086

Title: Impacts of oil spills on Arctic marine ecosystems: A quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment perspective
Author: Helle, Inari; Mäkinen, Jussi Antti-Eerikki; Nevalainen, Maisa Katariina; Afenyo, Mawuli; Vanhatalo, Jarno
Other contributor: University of Helsinki, Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Department of Mathematics and Statistics






Date: 2020-02-18
Language: eng
Number of pages: 10
Belongs to series: Environmental Science & Technology
ISSN: 0013-936X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b07086
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/313529
Abstract: Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.
Subject: 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
1172 Environmental sciences
1171 Geosciences
112 Statistics and probability
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