Impacts of oil spills on Arctic marine ecosystems: A quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment perspective

Show simple item record Helle, Inari Mäkinen, Jussi Antti-Eerikki Nevalainen, Maisa Katariina Afenyo, Mawuli Vanhatalo, Jarno 2020-03-23T10:55:05Z 2020-03-23T10:55:05Z 2020-02-18
dc.identifier.citation Helle , I , Mäkinen , J A-E , Nevalainen , M K , Afenyo , M & Vanhatalo , J 2020 , ' Impacts of oil spills on Arctic marine ecosystems: A quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment perspective ' , Environmental Science & Technology , vol. 54 , no. 4 , pp. 2112-2121 .
dc.identifier.other PURE: 130925290
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 5eec4641-459f-4e1a-9204-e4059a6efa32
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000514759000007
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/71182263
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0001-6599-8279/work/71184008
dc.description.abstract Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts. en
dc.format.extent 10
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Environmental Science & Technology
dc.rights cc_by
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
dc.subject 1172 Environmental sciences
dc.subject 1171 Geosciences
dc.subject 112 Statistics and probability
dc.subject MODEL
dc.subject SEA
dc.subject ICE
dc.subject TRANSPORT
dc.subject FATE
dc.title Impacts of oil spills on Arctic marine ecosystems: A quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment perspective en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group
dc.contributor.organization Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
dc.contributor.organization Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme
dc.contributor.organization Research Centre for Ecological Change
dc.contributor.organization Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme
dc.contributor.organization Department of Mathematics and Statistics
dc.contributor.organization Biostatistics Helsinki
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.issn 0013-936X
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion
dc.relation.funder Suomen Akatemia Projektilaskutus

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