Changes in Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey during 1996–2017 due to Political Risk

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http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:hulib-202005282488
Title: Changes in Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey during 1996–2017 due to Political Risk
Author: Walta, Veikko
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Faculty of Social Sciences
Publisher: Helsingin yliopisto
Date: 2020
Language: eng
URI: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:hulib-202005282488
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/315546
Thesis level: master's thesis
Degree program: Taloustieteen maisteriohjelma
Master's Programme in Economics
Magisterprogrammet i ekonomi
Specialisation: Taloustieteen yleinen opintosuunta
General track
Allmänna studieinriktningen
Abstract: The determinants of FDI have been a topic of interest in economics since the 1980s and this paper aims to contribute to this field. This study aims to measure how associated FDI is with the political risk as well as to see the extent of this relationship in Turkey in the years 1996–2017. The political risk is measured as a change in indexes that are provided by the World Bank, Freedom House, and Transparency International. These political indicators are Political Rights, Civil Liberties, the Corruption Perceptions Index, Regulatory Quality, Voice and Accountability, Rule of Law, Government Effectiveness, Control of Corruption, and Political Stability. The earlier literature on FDI and political risks is mostly empirical and there has not been much theoretical research. Chakrabarti analyzed the past studies on FDI and its determinants in 2001 and found out that in the earlier research, almost every explanatory variable of FDI except the market size was sensitive to small changes in the conditioning information set, casting doubt on the robustness of the results. There have also been conducted studies that address political risk or equivalent concepts. The 2005 research of Busse and Hefeker had the same topic as this paper but their data consisted of many countries and they employed two different panel models. One was a fixed-effects panel analysis while the other utilized a generalized method of moments estimator. I selected three model specifications for the time-series regression analysis. All three specifications have market size as a control variable and the other two also have the economy’s growth rate and trade openness. The third has the inflation rate as the final control variable. The data have a small number of observations which limits the options available for the empirical part of the study. Out of the nine political indicators, Regulatory Quality is the only political indicator that is not associated with FDI, while the results on the Corruption Perceptions Index and Control of Corruption are inconclusive. The rest six are associated with FDI. The Rule of Law index has the highest estimated coefficient value of the World Bank indicators and the Political Rights index has the highest estimated coefficient value of the Freedom House’s indicators.
Subject: FDI
Institutions
Political Risk
Multinational Corporations
Subject (yso): Ulkomaaninvestointi
instituutiot
riskit
yhtiöt
pääomanliikkeet
riskitekijät


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