Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites

Show full item record



Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/10138/316052

Citation

Makela , J , Minunno , F , Aalto , T , Makela , A , Markkanen , T & Peltoniemi , M 2020 , ' Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites ' , Biogeosciences , vol. 17 , no. 9 , pp. 2681-2700 . https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2681-2020

Title: Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites
Author: Makela, Jarmo; Minunno, Francesco; Aalto, Tuula; Makela, Annikki; Markkanen, Tiina; Peltoniemi, Mikko
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences)
University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences
Date: 2020-05-18
Language: eng
Number of pages: 20
Belongs to series: Biogeosciences
ISSN: 1726-4170
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/316052
Abstract: Forest ecosystems are already responding to changing environmental conditions that are driven by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These developments affect how societies can utilise and benefit from the woodland areas in the future, be it for example climate change mitigation as carbon sinks, lumber for wood industry, or preserved for nature tourism and recreational activities. We assess the effect and the relative magnitude of different uncertainty sources in ecosystem model simulations from the year 1980 to 2100 for two Finnish boreal forest sites. The models used in this study are the land ecosystem model JSBACH and the forest growth model PREBAS. The considered uncertainty sources for both models are model parameters and four prescribed climates with two RCP (representative concentration pathway) scenarios. Usually, model parameter uncertainty is not included in these types of uncertainty studies. PREBAS simulations also include two forest management scenarios. We assess the effect of these sources of variation at four different points in time on several ecosystem indicators, e.g. gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration, soil moisture, recurrence of drought, length of the vegetation active period (VAP), length of the snow melting period and the stand volume. The uncertainty induced by the climate models remains roughly the same throughout the simulations and is overtaken by the RCP scenario impact halfway through the experiment. The management actions are the most dominant uncertainty factors for Hyytiala and as important as RCP scenarios at the end of the simulations, but they contribute only half as much for Sodankyla. The parameter uncertainty is the least influential of the examined uncertainty sources, but it is also the most elusive to estimate due to non-linear and adverse effects on the simulated ecosystem indicators. Our analysis underlines the importance of carefully considering the implementation of forest use when simulating future ecosystem conditions, as human impact is evident and even increasing in boreal forested regions.
Subject: GREENHOUSE-GAS
CARBON
UNCERTAINTY
CALIBRATION
PROJECTIONS
VALIDATION
BIOSPHERE
FLUXES
CYCLE
4112 Forestry
1172 Environmental sciences
Rights:


Files in this item

Total number of downloads: Loading...

Files Size Format View
bg_17_2681_2020.pdf 5.153Mb PDF View/Open

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show full item record