Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites

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dc.contributor.author Makela, Jarmo
dc.contributor.author Minunno, Francesco
dc.contributor.author Aalto, Tuula
dc.contributor.author Makela, Annikki
dc.contributor.author Markkanen, Tiina
dc.contributor.author Peltoniemi, Mikko
dc.date.accessioned 2020-06-11T12:05:01Z
dc.date.available 2020-06-11T12:05:01Z
dc.date.issued 2020-05-18
dc.identifier.citation Makela , J , Minunno , F , Aalto , T , Makela , A , Markkanen , T & Peltoniemi , M 2020 , ' Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites ' , Biogeosciences , vol. 17 , no. 9 , pp. 2681-2700 . https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2681-2020
dc.identifier.other PURE: 138683578
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 30f4028c-1964-4392-93dc-19f9d65eefde
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000535284200001
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0001-9633-7350/work/75560259
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/316052
dc.description.abstract Forest ecosystems are already responding to changing environmental conditions that are driven by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These developments affect how societies can utilise and benefit from the woodland areas in the future, be it for example climate change mitigation as carbon sinks, lumber for wood industry, or preserved for nature tourism and recreational activities. We assess the effect and the relative magnitude of different uncertainty sources in ecosystem model simulations from the year 1980 to 2100 for two Finnish boreal forest sites. The models used in this study are the land ecosystem model JSBACH and the forest growth model PREBAS. The considered uncertainty sources for both models are model parameters and four prescribed climates with two RCP (representative concentration pathway) scenarios. Usually, model parameter uncertainty is not included in these types of uncertainty studies. PREBAS simulations also include two forest management scenarios. We assess the effect of these sources of variation at four different points in time on several ecosystem indicators, e.g. gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration, soil moisture, recurrence of drought, length of the vegetation active period (VAP), length of the snow melting period and the stand volume. The uncertainty induced by the climate models remains roughly the same throughout the simulations and is overtaken by the RCP scenario impact halfway through the experiment. The management actions are the most dominant uncertainty factors for Hyytiala and as important as RCP scenarios at the end of the simulations, but they contribute only half as much for Sodankyla. The parameter uncertainty is the least influential of the examined uncertainty sources, but it is also the most elusive to estimate due to non-linear and adverse effects on the simulated ecosystem indicators. Our analysis underlines the importance of carefully considering the implementation of forest use when simulating future ecosystem conditions, as human impact is evident and even increasing in boreal forested regions. en
dc.format.extent 20
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Biogeosciences
dc.rights cc_by
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject GREENHOUSE-GAS
dc.subject CARBON
dc.subject UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject CALIBRATION
dc.subject PROJECTIONS
dc.subject VALIDATION
dc.subject BIOSPHERE
dc.subject FLUXES
dc.subject CYCLE
dc.subject 4112 Forestry
dc.subject 1172 Environmental sciences
dc.title Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences)
dc.contributor.organization Department of Forest Sciences
dc.contributor.organization Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
dc.contributor.organization Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS)
dc.contributor.organization Annikki Mäkelä-Carter / Principal Investigator
dc.contributor.organization Forest Ecology and Management
dc.contributor.organization Forest Modelling Group
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2681-2020
dc.relation.issn 1726-4170
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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