Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/318615

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Ruosteenoja , K , Markkanen , T & Räisänen , J 2020 , ' Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate ' , International Journal of Climatology , vol. 40 , no. 10 , pp. 4444-4462 . https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6466

Title: Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate
Author: Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Markkanen, Tiina; Räisänen, Jouni
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
Date: 2020-08
Language: eng
Number of pages: 19
Belongs to series: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 0899-8418
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/318615
Abstract: Global warming acts to prolong thermal summers and shorten winters. In this work, future changes in the lengths and timing of four thermal seasons in northern Europe, with threshold temperatures 0 and 10 degrees C, are derived from bias-adjusted output data from 23 CMIP5 global climate models. Three future periods and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios are discussed. The focus is on the period 2040-2069 under RCP4.5, which approximately corresponds to a 2 degrees C global warming relative to the preindustrial era. By the period 2040-2069, the average length of the thermal summer increases by nearly 30 days relative to 1971-2000, and the thermal winter shortens by 30-60 days. The timing of the thermal springs advances while autumns delay. Within the model ensemble, there is a high linear correlation between the modelled annual-mean temperature increase and shifts in the thermal seasons. Thermal summers lengthen by about 10 days and winters shorten by 10-24 days per 1 degrees C of local warming. In the mid-21st century, about two-thirds of all summers (winters) are projected to be very long (very short) according to the baseline-period standards, with an anomaly greater than 20 days relative to the late-20th century temporal mean. The proportion of years without a thermal winter increases remarkably in the Baltic countries and southern Scandinavian peninsula. Implications of the changing thermal seasons on nature and human society are discussed in a literature review.
Subject: 2 degrees C global warming target
bias correction
climate change
representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
temperature deviation integral method
thermal summer
thermal winter
GROWING-SEASON
FINLAND
TEMPERATURE
FOREST
VARIABILITY
WEATHER
BOREAL
TRENDS
IMPACTS
DEMAND
114 Physical sciences
1172 Environmental sciences
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