The relative importance of local and regional processes to metapopulation dynamics

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Dallas , T A , Saastamoinen , M , Schulz , T & Ovaskainen , O 2020 , ' The relative importance of local and regional processes to metapopulation dynamics ' , Journal of Animal Ecology , vol. 89 , no. 3 , pp. 884-896 . https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13141

Title: The relative importance of local and regional processes to metapopulation dynamics
Author: Dallas, Tad A; Saastamoinen, Marjo; Schulz, Torsti; Ovaskainen, Otso
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Life Science HiLIFE
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme
Date: 2020-03
Language: eng
Number of pages: 13
Belongs to series: Journal of Animal Ecology
ISSN: 0021-8790
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/321191
Abstract: Metapopulation dynamics - patch occupancy, colonization and extinction - are the result of complex processes at both local (e.g. environmental conditions) and regional (e.g. spatial arrangement of habitat patches) scales. A large body of work has focused on habitat patch area and connectivity (area-isolation paradigm). However, these approaches often do not incorporate local environmental conditions or fully address how the spatial arrangement of habitat patches (and resulting connectivity) can influence metapopulation dynamics. Here, we utilize long-term data on a classic metapopulation system - the Glanville fritillary butterfly occupying a set of dry meadows and pastures in the angstrom land islands - to investigate the relative roles of local environmental conditions, geographic space and connectivity in capturing patch occupancy, colonization and extinction. We defined connectivity using traditional measures as well as graph-theoretic measures of centrality. Using boosted regression tree models, we find roughly comparable model performance among models trained on environmental conditions, geographic space or patch centrality. In models containing all of the covariates, we find strong and consistent evidence for the roles of resource abundance, longitude and centrality (i.e. connectivity) in predicting habitat patch occupancy and colonization, while patch centrality (connectivity) was relatively unimportant for predicting extinction. Relative variable importance did not change when geographic coordinates were not considered and models underwent spatially stratified cross-validation. Together, this suggests that the combination of regional-scale connectivity measures and local-scale environmental conditions is important for predicting metapopulation dynamics and that a stronger integration of ideas from network theory may provide insight into metapopulation processes.
Subject: AREA
CONNECTIVITY
HABITAT
MODELS
NETWORK ANALYSIS
OCCUPANCY
PATCH SIZE
POPULATION-DENSITY
SPATIAL DYNAMICS
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION
connectivity
graph theory
metapopulation
patch occupancy
spatial network structure
species distribution
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
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