Why do crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections? A comprehensive analysis based on eight barley crop models

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dc.contributor.author Tao, Fulu
dc.contributor.author Palosuo, Taru
dc.contributor.author Rötter, Reimund P.
dc.contributor.author Díaz-Ambrona, Carlos Gregorio Hernández
dc.contributor.author Inés Mínguez, M.
dc.contributor.author Semenov, Mikhail A.
dc.contributor.author Kersebaum, Kurt Christian
dc.contributor.author Cammarano, Davide
dc.contributor.author Specka, Xenia
dc.contributor.author Nendel, Claas
dc.contributor.author Srivastava, Amit Kumar
dc.contributor.author Ewert, Frank
dc.contributor.author Padovan, Gloria
dc.contributor.author Ferrise, Roberto
dc.contributor.author Martre, Pierre
dc.contributor.author Rodríguez, Lucía
dc.contributor.author Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita
dc.contributor.author Gaiser, Thomas
dc.contributor.author Höhn, Jukka G.
dc.contributor.author Salo, Tapio
dc.contributor.author Dibari, Camilla
dc.contributor.author Schulman, Alan H.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-11-26T03:33:18Z
dc.date.available 2021-12-18T03:45:32Z
dc.date.issued 2020-02-15
dc.identifier.citation Tao , F , Palosuo , T , Rötter , R P , Díaz-Ambrona , C G H , Inés Mínguez , M , Semenov , M A , Kersebaum , K C , Cammarano , D , Specka , X , Nendel , C , Srivastava , A K , Ewert , F , Padovan , G , Ferrise , R , Martre , P , Rodríguez , L , Ruiz-Ramos , M , Gaiser , T , Höhn , J G , Salo , T , Dibari , C & Schulman , A H 2020 , ' Why do crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections? A comprehensive analysis based on eight barley crop models ' , Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol. 281 , 107851 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107851
dc.identifier.other PURE: 132651641
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: d45237ba-dd02-49e3-b030-c0c85e3519b1
dc.identifier.other RIS: urn:C9D07037E54F921EAE5DBF6DA6BA3C6A
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000525808600029
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/321942
dc.description.abstract Robust projections of climate impact on crop growth and productivity by crop models are key to designing effective adaptations to cope with future climate risk. However, current crop models diverge strongly in their climate impact projections. Previous studies tried to compare or improve crop models regarding the impact of one single climate variable. However, this approach is insufficient, considering that crop growth and yield are affected by the interactive impacts of multiple climate change factors and multiple interrelated biophysical processes. Here, a new comprehensive analysis was conducted to look holistically at the reasons why crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections and to investigate which biophysical processes and knowledge gaps are key factors affecting this uncertainty and should be given the highest priorities for improvement. First, eight barley models and eight climate projections for the 2050s were applied to investigate the uncertainty from crop model structure in climate impact projections for barley growth and yield at two sites: Jokioinen, Finland (Boreal) and Lleida, Spain (Mediterranean). Sensitivity analyses were then conducted on the responses of major crop processes to major climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, irradiation, and CO2, as well as their interactions, for each of the eight crop models. The results showed that the temperature and CO2 relationships in the models were the major sources of the large discrepancies among the models in climate impact projections. In particular, the impacts of increases in temperature and CO2 on leaf area development were identified as the major causes for the large uncertainty in simulating changes in evapotranspiration, above-ground biomass, and grain yield. Our findings highlight that advancements in understanding the basic processes and thresholds by which climate warming and CO2 increases will affect leaf area development, crop evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, and grain formation in contrasting environments are needed for modeling their impacts. fi
dc.format.extent 18
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
dc.rights cc_by_nc_nd
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT
dc.subject ATMOSPHERIC CO2
dc.subject Agriculture
dc.subject Climate change
dc.subject Crop growth simulation
dc.subject ELEVATED CO2
dc.subject FIELD EXPERIMENT
dc.subject Impact
dc.subject Model improvement
dc.subject NITROGEN DYNAMICS
dc.subject RICE PHENOLOGY
dc.subject SIMULATION-MODELS
dc.subject TEMPERATURE
dc.subject UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject Uncertainty
dc.subject WHEAT GROWTH
dc.subject 11831 Plant biology
dc.subject 1172 Environmental sciences
dc.subject 415 Other agricultural sciences
dc.title Why do crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections? A comprehensive analysis based on eight barley crop models en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS)
dc.contributor.organization Institute of Biotechnology
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107851
dc.relation.issn 0168-1923
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version acceptedVersion

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