The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

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van Bergen , E , Dallas , T , DiLeo , M F , Kahilainen , A , Mattila , A L K , Luoto , M & Saastamoinen , M 2020 , ' The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation ' , Conservation Biology , vol. 34 , no. 6 , pp. 1503-1511 . https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13515

Title: The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation
Author: van Bergen, Erik; Dallas, Tad; DiLeo, Michelle F.; Kahilainen, Aapo; Mattila, Anniina L. K.; Luoto, Miska; Saastamoinen, Marjo
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Life Science HiLIFE
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Research Centre for Ecological Change
University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Life Science HiLIFE
Date: 2020-12
Language: eng
Belongs to series: Conservation Biology
ISSN: 0888-8892
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/324700
Abstract: Abstract The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and/or community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Here, using extensive data of an ecological model system, we test whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. First, we report a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation on the Åland islands (Finland). Next, using climatic and satellite data we show that the summer of 2018 was an anomaly in terms of water balance and vegetation productivity indices across the habitats of the butterfly, and demonstrate that population growth rates are strongly associated with spatio-temporal variation in climatic water balance. Finally, we demonstrate that covariates that have previously been identified to impact the extinction probability of local populations in this system are less informative when populations are exposed to (severe) drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events. Article impact statement: A demographic crash of an iconic metapopulation reveals that extreme climatic events reduce the value of predictive models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
Subject: 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
climate change
extreme climatic events
drought
metapopulation dynamics
population decline
extinction
EVENTS
PERSISTENCE
CLIMATE-CHANGE
VULNERABILITY
TRENDS
RESPONSES
MODELS
EXTREMES
DYNAMICS
R PACKAGE
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