External validation and adaptation of a dynamic prediction model for patients with high‐grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328763

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PERSARC Study Group , Rueten-Budde , A J , van Praag , V M , van de Sande , M A J , Fiocco , M , Aston , W , Bonenkamp , H , Callegaro , D , Dijkstra , P D S , Ferguson , P C , Griffin , A M , Gronchi , A , Grünhagen , D , Haas , R , Hayes , A , Jeys , L M , Keller , J , Laitinen , M K , Leithner , A , Maretty-Kongstad , K , Pollock , R , Posch , F , Smith , M , Smolle , M , Styring , E , Tunn , P-U , van der Hage , J A , van Ginkel , R , van Houdt , W , Verhoef , K , Willegger , M , Willeumier , J J , Windhager , R , Wunder , J S & Zaikova , O 2020 , ' External validation and adaptation of a dynamic prediction model for patients with high‐grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma ' , Journal of Surgical Oncology , pp. 1-7 . https://doi.org/10.1002/jso.26337

Title: External validation and adaptation of a dynamic prediction model for patients with high‐grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma
Author: PERSARC Study Group; Rueten-Budde, Anja J.; van Praag, Veroniek M.; van de Sande, Michiel A. J.; Fiocco, Marta; Aston, Will; Bonenkamp, Han; Callegaro, Dario; Dijkstra, P. D. Sander; Ferguson, Peter C.; Griffin, Anthony M.; Gronchi, Alessandro; Grünhagen, Dirk; Haas, Rick; Hayes, Andrew; Jeys, Lee M; Keller, Johnny; Laitinen, Minna K.; Leithner, Andreas; Maretty-Kongstad, Katja; Pollock, Rob; Posch, Florian; Smith, Myles; Smolle, Maria; Styring, Emelie; Tunn, Per-Ulf; van der Hage, Jos A.; van Ginkel, Robert; van Houdt, Winan; Verhoef, Kees; Willegger, Madeleine; Willeumier, Julie J.; Windhager, Reinhard; Wunder, Jay S.; Zaikova, Olga
Contributor: University of Helsinki, HUS Musculoskeletal and Plastic Surgery
Date: 2020-11-30
Language: eng
Number of pages: 7
Belongs to series: Journal of Surgical Oncology
ISSN: 0022-4790
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328763
Abstract: Background and Objectives: A dynamic prediction model for patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities was previously developed to predict updated overall survival probabilities throughout patient follow‐up. This study updates and externally validates the dynamic model. Methods: Data from 3826 patients with high‐grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma, treated surgically with curative intent were used to update the dynamic PERsonalised SARcoma Care (PERSARC) model. Patients were added to the model development cohort and grade was included in the model. External validation was performed with data from 1111 patients treated at a single tertiary center. Results: Calibration plots show good model calibration. Dynamic C‐indices suggest that the model can discriminate between high‐ and low‐risk patients. The dynamic C‐indices at 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after surgery were equal to 0.697, 0.790, 0.822, 0.818, 0.812, and 0.827, respectively. Conclusion: Results from the external validation show that the dynamic PERSARC model is reliable in predicting the probability of surviving an additional 5 years from a specific prediction time point during follow‐up. The model combines patient‐, treatment‐specific and time‐dependent variables such as local recurrence and distant metastasis to provide accurate survival predictions throughout follow‐up and is available through the PERSARC app.
Subject: 3126 Surgery, anesthesiology, intensive care, radiology
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