Ten-year projection of white-nose syndrome disease dynamics at the southern leading-edge of infection in North America

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Meierhofer , M , Lilley , T M , Ruokolainen , L , Johnson , J , Parratt , S , Morrison , M , Pearce , B , Evans , J & Anttila , J 2021 , ' Ten-year projection of white-nose syndrome disease dynamics at the southern leading-edge of infection in North America ' , Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences , vol. 288 , no. 1952 , 20210719 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0719

Title: Ten-year projection of white-nose syndrome disease dynamics at the southern leading-edge of infection in North America
Author: Meierhofer, Melissa; Lilley, Thomas M.; Ruokolainen, Lasse; Johnson, Joseph; Parratt, Steven; Morrison, Michael; Pearce, Brian; Evans, Jonah; Anttila, Jani
Contributor organization: Zoology
Finnish Museum of Natural History
Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
Biosciences
Date: 2021-06-09
Language: eng
Number of pages: 9
Belongs to series: Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences
ISSN: 0962-8452
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0719
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/331654
Abstract: Predicting the emergence and spread of infectious diseases is critical for the effective conservation of biodiversity. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging infectious disease of bats, has resulted in high mortality in eastern North America. Because the fungal causative agent Pseudogymnoascus destructans is constrained by temperature and humidity, spread dynamics may vary by geography. Environmental conditions in the southern part of the continent are different than the northeast, where disease dynamics are typically studied, making it difficult to predict how the disease will manifest. Herein, we modelled WNS pathogen spread in Texas based on cave densities and average dispersal distances of hosts, projecting these results out to 10 years. We parameterized a predictive model of WNS epidemiology and its effects on bat populations with observed cave environmental data. Our model suggests that bat populations in northern Texas will be more affected by WNS mortality than southern Texas. As such, we recommend prioritizing the preservation of large overwintering colonies of bats in north Texas through management actions. Our model illustrates that infectious disease spread and infectious disease severity can become uncoupled over a gradient of environmental variation and highlight the importance of understanding host, pathogen and environmental conditions across a breadth of environments.
Subject: AGENT
BATS
BROWN MYOTIS
ECOLOGY
EVAPORATIVE WATER-LOSS
FUNGAL DISEASE
IMPACTS
PATHOGEN
PSEUDOGYMNOASCUS-DESTRUCTANS
SPREAD
Texas
chiroptera
disease management
landscape structure
source-sink dynamics
white-nose syndrome
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
3111 Biomedicine
Peer reviewed: Yes
Rights: cc_by
Usage restriction: openAccess
Self-archived version: publishedVersion


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