Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change

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Abrego , N , Roslin , T , Huotari , T , Ji , Y , Schmidt , N M , Wang , J , Yu , D W & Ovaskainen , O 2021 , ' Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change ' , Ecography , vol. 44 , no. 6 , pp. 885-896 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547

Title: Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change
Author: Abrego, Nerea; Roslin, Tomas; Huotari, Tea; Ji, Yinqiu; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Wang, Jiaxin; Yu, Douglas W.; Ovaskainen, Otso
Other contributor: University of Helsinki, Department of Agricultural Sciences
University of Helsinki, Department of Agricultural Sciences
University of Helsinki, Department of Agricultural Sciences
University of Helsinki, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme





Date: 2021-06
Language: eng
Number of pages: 12
Belongs to series: Ecography
ISSN: 0906-7590
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332265
Abstract: Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14-year-long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2 degrees C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially unable to predict species responses, but with species interactions included, the predictive power of the models improves considerably. Cascading trophic effects thereby emerge as important in structuring biodiversity response to climate change. Given the need to scale up from species-level to community-level projections of biodiversity change, these results represent a major step forward for predictive ecology.
Subject: Arctic
Arthropoda
climate change
community assembly
food web
joint species distribution model
trophic cascade
1172 Environmental sciences
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