Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332265

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Abrego , N , Roslin , T , Huotari , T , Ji , Y , Schmidt , N M , Wang , J , Yu , D W & Ovaskainen , O 2021 , ' Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change ' , Ecography , vol. 44 , no. 6 , pp. 885-896 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547

Titel: Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change
Författare: Abrego, Nerea; Roslin, Tomas; Huotari, Tea; Ji, Yinqiu; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Wang, Jiaxin; Yu, Douglas W.; Ovaskainen, Otso
Upphovmannens organisation: Department of Agricultural Sciences
Plant Production Sciences
Biosciences
Spatial Foodweb Ecology Group
Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme
Otso Ovaskainen / Principal Investigator
Datum: 2021-06
Språk: eng
Sidantal: 12
Tillhör serie: Ecography
ISSN: 0906-7590
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547
Permanenta länken (URI): http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332265
Abstrakt: Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14-year-long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2 degrees C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially unable to predict species responses, but with species interactions included, the predictive power of the models improves considerably. Cascading trophic effects thereby emerge as important in structuring biodiversity response to climate change. Given the need to scale up from species-level to community-level projections of biodiversity change, these results represent a major step forward for predictive ecology.
Subject: Arctic
Arthropoda
climate change
community assembly
food web
joint species distribution model
trophic cascade
1172 Environmental sciences
Referentgranskad: Ja
Licens: cc_by
Användningsbegränsning: openAccess
Parallelpublicerad version: publishedVersion


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