On the trade-offs and synergies between forest carbon sequestration and substitution

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332407

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Soimakallio, S., Kalliokoski, T., Lehtonen, A. et al. On the trade-offs and synergies between forest carbon sequestration and substitution. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 26, 4 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09942-9

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Title: On the trade-offs and synergies between forest carbon sequestration and substitution
Author: Soimakallio, Sampo; Kalliokoski, Tuomo; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Salminen, Olli
Publisher: Springer
Date: 2021
Language: en
Belongs to series: Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change 26: 4
ISSN: 1381-2386
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332407
Abstract: Forest biomass can be used in two different ways to limit the growth of the atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations: (1) to provide negative emissions through sequestration of carbon into forests and harvested wood products or (2) to avoid GHG emissions through substitution of non-renewable raw materials with wood. We study the trade-offs and synergies between these strategies using three different Finnish national-level forest scenarios between 2015 and 2044 as examples. We demonstrate how GHG emissions change when wood harvest rates are increased. We take into account CO2 and other greenhouse gas flows in the forest, the decay rate of harvested wood products and fossil-based CO2 emissions that can be avoided by substituting alternative materials with wood derived from increased harvests. We considered uncertainties of key parameters by using stochastic simulation. According to our results, an increase in harvest rates in Finland increased the total net GHG flow to the atmosphere virtually certainly or very likely, given the uncertainties and time frame considered. This was because the increased biomass-based CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere together with decreased carbon sequestration into the forest were very likely higher than the avoided fossil-based CO2 emissions. The reverse of this conclusion would require that compared to what was studied in this paper, the share of long-living wood products in the product mix would be higher, carbon dioxide from bioenergy production would be captured and stored, and reduction in forest carbon equivalent net sink due to wood harvesting would be minimized.
Subject: forest
carbon
sequestration
substitution
sink
avoided emissions
emissions
carbon dioxide
greenhouse gases
carbon sequestration
wood
carbon sinks
gas production
fuelwood
wood gas
Subject (ysa): hiilinielut
metsät
hiilidioksidi
ilmakehä
hakkuut
metsäekosysteemit
hiilensidonta
kasvihuonekaasut
päästöt


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