Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

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Landreau , A , Juhola , S , Jurgilevich , A & Räsänen , A 2021 , ' Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk ' , Climatic Change , vol. 167 , no. 1-2 , 12 .

Title: Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk
Author: Landreau, Armand; Juhola, Sirkku; Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi
Contributor organization: Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme
Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
Urban Environmental Policy
Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (Urbaria)
Date: 2021-07
Language: eng
Number of pages: 20
Belongs to series: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
Abstract: The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability index with seven indicators downscaled to the postal code area scale for 2050. Three different scenario sets for vulnerability are tested: one with five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; the second with three European SSPs (EUSSPs) with data at the sub-national scale (NUTS2); and the last with the EUSSPs but aggregated data at the national scale. We construct projections of heat risk utilizing climatic heat hazard data for three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and vulnerability and exposure data for five global SSPs up to 2100. In the vulnerability projections, each scenario in each dataset shows a decrease in vulnerability compared to current values, and the differences between the three scenario sets are small. There are evident differences both in the spatial patterns and in the temporal trends when comparing the risk projections with constant vulnerability to the projections with dynamic vulnerability. Heat hazard increases notably in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but a decrease of vulnerability especially in SSP1 and SSP5 alleviates risks. We show that projections of vulnerability have a considerable impact on future heat-related risk and emphasize that future risk assessments should include the combination of long-term climatic and socio-economic projections.
Subject: Adaptation
Climate change
Heat risk
Socio-economic scenarios
Vulnerability dynamics
1172 Environmental sciences
Peer reviewed: Yes
Rights: cc_by
Usage restriction: openAccess
Self-archived version: publishedVersion

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