Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

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Hällfors , M H , Pöyry , J , Heliölä , J , Kohonen , I , Kuussaari , M , Leinonen , R , Schmucki , R , Sihvonen , P & Saastamoinen , M 2021 , ' Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera ' , Ecology Letters , vol. 24 , no. 8 , pp. 1619-1632 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13774

Title: Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera
Author: Hällfors, Maria H.; Pöyry, Juha; Heliölä, Janne; Kohonen, Ilmari; Kuussaari, Mikko; Leinonen, Reima; Schmucki, Reto; Sihvonen, Pasi; Saastamoinen, Marjo
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
University of Helsinki, Unit of Biodiversity Informatics
University of Helsinki, Finnish Museum of Natural History
University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Life Science HiLIFE
Date: 2021-08
Language: eng
Number of pages: 14
Belongs to series: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461-023X
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332824
Abstract: Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.
Subject: climate change strategies
distribution
global change
life-history events
range shifts
CLIMATE-CHANGE
PHYLOGENETIC CONSERVATISM
ABUNDANCE INDEX
BUTTERFLIES
RESPONSES
BIRDS
MARGINS
POPULATIONS
INCREASES
MISMATCH
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
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