Agricultural nutrient loading under alternative climate, societal and manure recycling scenarios

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dc.contributor.author Huttunen, Inese
dc.contributor.author Hyytiäinen, Kari
dc.contributor.author Huttunen, Markus
dc.contributor.author Sihvonen, Matti
dc.contributor.author Veijalainen, Noora
dc.contributor.author Korppoo, Marie
dc.contributor.author Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina
dc.date.accessioned 2021-08-09T08:08:01Z
dc.date.available 2021-08-09T08:08:01Z
dc.date.issued 2021-08-20
dc.identifier.citation Huttunen , I , Hyytiäinen , K , Huttunen , M , Sihvonen , M , Veijalainen , N , Korppoo , M & Heiskanen , A-S 2021 , ' Agricultural nutrient loading under alternative climate, societal and manure recycling scenarios ' , The Science of the Total Environment , vol. 783 , 146871 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146871
dc.identifier.other PURE: 167310202
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 36f305e4-ca86-444c-a739-37eb883ea7d5
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000663798400002
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0002-4366-0186/work/98270767
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/332940
dc.description.abstract This paper introduces a framework for extending global climate and socioeconomic scenarios in order to study agricultural nutrient pollution on an individual catchment scale. Our framework builds on and extends Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) at the spatial and temporal scales that are relevant for the drivers of animal husbandry, manure recycling and the application of inorganic fertilisers in crop production. Our case study area is the Aura river catchment in South-West Finland, which discharges into the heavily eutrophic Baltic Sea. The Aura river catchment has intensive agriculture - both livestock and crop production. Locally adjusted and interpreted climate and socioeconomic scenarios were used as inputs to a field-level economic optimisation in order to study how farmers might react to the changing markets and climate conditions under different SSPs. The results on economically optimal fertilisation levels were then used as inputs to the spatially and temporally explicit nutrient loading model (VEMALA). Alternative manure recycling strategies that matched with SSP narratives were studied as means to reduce the phosphorus (P) overfertilisation in areas with high livestock density. According to our simulations, on average the P loads increased by 18% during 2071-2100 from the current level and the variation in P loads between scenarios was large (from & minus;14% to +50%). By contrast, the nitrogen (N) loads had decreased on average by & minus;9% (with variation from & minus;20% to +3%) by the end of the current century. Phosphorus loading was most sensitive to manure recycling strategies and the speed of climate change. Nitrogen loading was less sensitive to changes in climate and socioeconomic drivers. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). en
dc.format.extent 15
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof The Science of the Total Environment
dc.rights cc_by
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject Climate change
dc.subject Nutrient loading modelling
dc.subject VEMALA
dc.subject Agriculture
dc.subject Manure recycling
dc.subject Optimal fertilisation
dc.subject CROP PRODUCTION
dc.subject CHANGE IMPACT
dc.subject BALTIC SEA
dc.subject LAND-USE
dc.subject PHOSPHORUS
dc.subject YIELD
dc.subject MODEL
dc.subject PROJECTIONS
dc.subject ADAPTATION
dc.subject CATCHMENT
dc.subject 1172 Environmental sciences
dc.title Agricultural nutrient loading under alternative climate, societal and manure recycling scenarios en
dc.type Article
dc.contributor.organization Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
dc.contributor.organization Environmental and Resource Economics
dc.contributor.organization Economics of aquatic ecosystems
dc.contributor.organization Department of Economics and Management
dc.description.reviewstatus Peer reviewed
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146871
dc.relation.issn 0048-9697
dc.rights.accesslevel openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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