COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333665

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Hussein , T , Hammad , M H , Fung , P L , Al-Kloub , M , Odeh , I , Zaidan , M A & Wraith , D 2021 , ' COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting ' , Vaccines , vol. 9 , no. 7 , 728 . https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728

Julkaisun nimi: COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
Tekijä: Hussein, Tareq; Hammad, Mahmoud H.; Fung, Pak Lun; Al-Kloub, Marwan; Odeh, Issam; Zaidan, Martha A.; Wraith, Darren
Muu tekijä: University of Helsinki, Air quality research group
University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
Päiväys: 2021-07-02
Kieli: eng
Sivumäärä: 12
Kuuluu julkaisusarjaan: Vaccines
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333665
Tiivistelmä: In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021.
Avainsanat: 114 Physical sciences
linear forecast
white-box model
vaccination
public immunity
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