COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting

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dc.contributor University of Helsinki, Air quality research group en
dc.contributor University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) en
dc.contributor University of Helsinki, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) en
dc.contributor.author Hussein, Tareq
dc.contributor.author Hammad, Mahmoud H.
dc.contributor.author Fung, Pak Lun
dc.contributor.author Al-Kloub, Marwan
dc.contributor.author Odeh, Issam
dc.contributor.author Zaidan, Martha A.
dc.contributor.author Wraith, Darren
dc.date.accessioned 2021-08-26T12:00:01Z
dc.date.available 2021-08-26T12:00:01Z
dc.date.issued 2021-07-02
dc.identifier.citation Hussein , T , Hammad , M H , Fung , P L , Al-Kloub , M , Odeh , I , Zaidan , M A & Wraith , D 2021 , ' COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting ' , Vaccines , vol. 9 , no. 7 , 728 . https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728 en
dc.identifier.other PURE: 167906230
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: bf42b5ff-4d41-4bd5-bf29-fc7b757fdcf7
dc.identifier.other WOS: 000677012400001
dc.identifier.other Scopus: 85109846331
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0002-0241-6435/work/99031833
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0002-6348-1230/work/99033203
dc.identifier.other ORCID: /0000-0003-3493-1383/work/99033289
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333665
dc.description.abstract In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021. fi
dc.format.extent 12
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Vaccines
dc.rights en
dc.subject 114 Physical sciences en
dc.subject linear forecast en
dc.subject white-box model en
dc.subject vaccination en
dc.subject public immunity en
dc.title COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan-Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting en
dc.type Article
dc.description.version Peer reviewed
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728
dc.type.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/other
dc.type.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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