Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems

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Groundstroem , F & Juhola , S 2021 , ' Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems ' , Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change , vol. 26 , 29 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09967-0

Title: Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems
Author: Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme
University of Helsinki, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme
Date: 2021-10
Language: eng
Number of pages: 48
Belongs to series: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
ISSN: 1381-2386
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333917
Abstract: Increased use of bioenergy, driven by ambitious climate and energy policies, has led to an upsurge in international bioenergy trade. Simultaneously, it is evident that every node of the bioenergy supply chain, from cultivation of energy crops to production of electricity and heat, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, climate change assessments of bioenergy supply chains neither account for the global nature of the bioenergy market, nor the complexity and dynamic interconnectivity between and within different sub-systems in which the bioenergy supply chain is embedded, thereby neglecting potential compounding and cascading impacts of climate change. In this paper, systems thinking is utilised to develop an analytical framework to address this gap, and aided by causal loop diagrams, cascading impacts of climate change are identified for a case study concerning imports of wood pellets from the United States to the European Union. The findings illustrate how the complexity and interconnectivity of the wood pellet supply system predispose the supply chain to various cascading climate change impacts stemming from environmental, social, political and economic domains, and highlight the value of using system-based analysis tools for studying such complex and dynamic systems.
Subject: 1172 Environmental sciences
cascading climate risks
indirect climate change impacts
cross-border climate change impacts
5200 Other social sciences
energy transition
5172 Global Politics
bioeconomy
Bioeconomy
Energy transition
Cascading risks
Indirect impacts
Cross-border impacts
WOOD PELLET DEMAND
INTERCONNECTED INFRASTRUCTURES
LANDOWNER WILLINGNESS
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
RENEWABLE ENERGY
ECONOMIC DAMAGE
UNITED-STATES
BIOMASS
FORESTRY
FUTURE
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