A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/334363

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Awad , S F , Dargham , S R , Toumi , A A , Dumit , E M , El-Nahas , K G , Al-Hamaq , A O , Critchley , J A , Tuomilehto , J , Al-Thani , M H J & Abu-Raddad , L J 2021 , ' A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes ' , Scientific Reports , vol. 11 , no. 1 , 1811 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81385-3

Titel: A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes
Författare: Awad, Susanne F.; Dargham, Soha R.; Toumi, Amine A.; Dumit, Elsy M.; El-Nahas, Katie G.; Al-Hamaq, Abdulla O.; Critchley, Julia A.; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Al-Thani, Mohamed H. J.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
Medarbetare: University of Helsinki, Clinicum
Datum: 2021-01-19
Språk: eng
Sidantal: 10
Tillhör serie: Scientific Reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Permanenta länken (URI): http://hdl.handle.net/10138/334363
Abstrakt: We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.
Subject: FASTING PLASMA-GLUCOSE
TYPE-2
PREVALENCE
VALIDATION
BURDEN
BIAS
TOOL
3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health
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