Emissions and power demand in optimal energy retrofit scenarios of the Finnish building stock by 2050

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/334628

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Janne Hirvonen, Juhani Heljo, Juha Jokisalo, Antti Kurvinen, Arto Saari, Tuomo Niemelä, Paula Sankelo, Risto Kosonen. Emissions and power demand in optimal energy retrofit scenarios of the Finnish building stock by 2050. Sustainable Cities and Society 70 (2021), 102896, ISSN 2210-6707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102896

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Title: Emissions and power demand in optimal energy retrofit scenarios of the Finnish building stock by 2050
Author: Hirvonen, Janne; Heljo, Juhani; Jokisalo, Juha; Kurvinen, Antti; Saari, Arto; Niemelä, Tuomo; Sankelo, Paula; Kosonen, Risto
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2021
Language: en
Belongs to series: Sustainable Cities and Society 70 (2021), 102896
ISSN: 2210-6707
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102896
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/334628
Abstract: Finland and the European Union aim to reduce CO2 emissions by 80–100 % before 2050. This requires drastic changes in all emissions-generating sectors. In the building sector, all new buildings are required to be nearly zero energy buildings. However, 79 % of buildings in Finland were built before 2000, meaning that they lack heat recovery and suffer from badly insulated facades. This study presents four large-scale building energy retrofit scenarios, showing the emission reduction potential in the whole Finnish building stock. Six basic building types with several age categories and heating systems were used to model the energy demand in the building stock. Retrofitted building configurations were chosen using simulation-based multi-objective optimisation and combined according to a novel building stock model. After large-scale building retrofits, the national district heating demand was reduced by 25–63 % compared to the business as usual development scenario. Despite a large increase in the number of heat pumps in the system, retrofits in buildings with direct electric heating can prevent the rise of national electricity consumption. CO2 emissions in the different scenarios were reduced by 50–75 % by 2050 using current emissions factors.
Description: Highlights • Optimized energy retrofits reduced energy consumption of building archetypes. • Four retrofitting scenarios for Finnish building stock by 2050 were analyzed. • District heating demand was reduced by 25–63 % compared to business-as-usual by 2050. • Electricity demand did not rise despite increased heat pump deployment. • CO2 emissions in the retrofit scenarios were reduced by 50–75 % by 2050.
Subject: building stock
greenhouse gas emissions
building energy modelling
heat pump
district heating
optimisation
emissions
buildings
energy efficiency
heating (spaces)
energy consumption (energy technology)
scenarios
heating systems
district heating
heat pumps
decrease (active)
construction
climate changes
Europe
Finland
Subject (ysa): energiankulutus
optimointi
kaukolämpö
lämpöpumput
korjaus
lämmitys
rakennukset
rakennuskanta
kasvihuonekaasut
päästöt
skenaariot
energiatehokkuus
energiankulutus (energiateknologia)
lämmitysjärjestelmät
kaukolämmitys
vähentäminen
rakentaminen
ilmastonmuutokset
Eurooppa
Suomi


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