Extending the shared socioeconomic pathways for adaptation planning of blue tourism

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http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2022071251638 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/346145

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Title: Extending the shared socioeconomic pathways for adaptation planning of blue tourism
Author: Hyytiäinen, Kari; Kolehmainen, Liisa; Amelung, Bas; Kok, Kasper; Lonkila, Kirsi-Marja; Malve, Olli; Similä, Jukka; Sokero, Mikael; Zandersen, Marianne
Contributor organization: Suomen ympäristökeskus
The Finnish Environment Institute
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2022
Language: en
Belongs to series: Futures
ISSN: 0016-3287
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102917
URI: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2022071251638
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/346145
Abstract: This paper offers an approach to long-term planning for an industrial sector that is sensitive to climate change, the state of adjacent natural environments and the associated socioeconomic developments. The paper combines exploratory and target-seeking scenarios to understand the future challenges of nature-based blue tourism under alternative global futures, and to develop sequences of actions to accomplish the best achievable future outcome for blue tourism at a local scale. We detail a bottom-up approach to scenario development for tourism, with local stake- holders developing local scenarios within the boundaries provided by the locally extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), widely used in climate research. As a demonstration of the approach, a group of invited stakeholders developed locally extended scenario narratives and the adaptation plans for blue tourism for coastal areas surrounding the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. The co-creation process yielded several recommendations for immediate action con- cerning protection of the coastal environments, land use planning, internal communication with the sector and coordinated monitoring of economic, ecological, social and cultural sustainability indicators. The approach offers a way forward for systematically assessing the future risks and opportunities that a changing environment and society create for blue tourism.
Subject: future
sustainability
projections
scenarios
adaptation planning
knowledge co-creation
nature-based turism
sustainability transition
Rights: CC BY 4.0


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