Air pollutants and energy pathways: Extending models for abatement strategies

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Title: Air pollutants and energy pathways: Extending models for abatement strategies
Author: Syri, Sanna
Publisher: Finnish Environment Institute
Date: 2001
Language: en
Belongs to series: Monographs of the Boreal Environment Research 19
ISBN: 952-11-0885-1
ISSN: 1796-1661
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/39335
Abstract: This study presents the development and applications of regional and local scale models for use in integrated assessment of air pollution effects in conjunction with large-scale models. A regional deposition model called DAIQUIRI (Deposition, AIr QUality and Integrated Regional Information) for integrated assessment purposes in Finland was constructed, and regional matrices for nitrogen oxides and ammonia were developed from the results of the regional air quality model of the FMI. DAIQUIRI produced similar estimates of deposition from Finnish sources as the original model, and long-term trends and the average level of deposition estimated with DAIQUIRI were found comparable with the monitored deposition levels and trends. For the mid-nineties situation, the regional nitrogen modeling resulted in 9% to 19% (depending on the region compared) larger estimates of areas with acidity critical load exceedances than when using European scale nitrogen deposition modeling.In this work, also a method for estimating the impacts of local NOx emissions on urban and sub-urban ozone levels was developed and tested. The study concentrated on representing the destruction of ozone by fresh NO emissions in urban areas for future use in integrated assessment modeling of ozone control strategies. Correlation coefficients between measured daytime ozone values in the study area were found to improve from 0.64 (correlation between urban and surrounding rural measurements) to 0.85, on the average. The average correlation between daytime large-scale model estimates and urban site measurements was found to improve from 0.37 to 0.58.In the study, also integrated assessment model applications were carried out at European, national and local levels. The synergies between control strategies for CO2 and acidification and ozone formation in the case of the UN/FCCC Kyoto protocol and the air quality targets of the EU were assessed with the help of coupled models. With two alternative energy scenarios reflecting the Kyoto targets for CO2, reductions of sulfur and NOx emissions between 12% and 22% and 8% to 12%, respectively, were estimated by 2010 in the EU-15 with the present emission control legislation. Due to the lower activity levels generating less emissions and the cleaner energy forms used, 35-43% cost savings in further technical emission controls required for achieving the EU air quality targets would be achieved with the scenarios studied. Case studies for Finland indicated that there has been a decrease of 60% in the area at risk of acidification from 1990 to 1995, and that the declining trend is expected to continue due to the recent international emission reduction agreements within the UN/ECE and the EU. Implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Finland and in the whole of EU-15 (with the present emission legislation) could bring up to 8% more reduction of ecosystems at risk of acidification in Finland by 2010 than the recent UN/ECE protocol.An uncertainty analysis of acidification integrated assessment modeling in Finland indicated that critical loads dominate the uncertainty. Estimates are becoming more robust, as the general level of deposition is decreasing. In Finland, further efforts to reduce the overall uncertainty should be mainly directed to more accurate description of critical thresholds. In areas affected by major nearby emission sources, also uncertainties in emissions and deposition are significant. The models and their applications presented in this study contributed to identifying the problem characteristics and have supported environmental policy development at international, national and regional levels.
Subject: ilma
epäpuhtaudet
rikki
typen oksidit
hiilidioksidi
otsoni
päästöt
ilmakehä
laskeumat
happamoituminen
mallintaminen
ilman saastuminen
ilmansuojelu
energiapolitiikka


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