Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

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dc.contributor Svenska handelshögskolan, Institutionen för finansiell ekonomi och ekonomisk statistik, finansiell ekonomi sv
dc.contributor Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Department of Finance and Statistics, Finance en
dc.contributor.author Karakozova, Olga
dc.date.accessioned 2011-03-02T13:21:26Z
dc.date.available 2011-03-02T13:21:26Z
dc.date.issued 2005-10-04
dc.identifier.isbn 951-555-890-5
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10227/121
dc.identifier.uri URN:ISBN:951-555-890-5
dc.description.abstract Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques. fi
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dc.format.extent 369297 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.format.mimetype text/plain
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher Svenska handelshögskolan sv
dc.publisher Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Society
dc.relation.ispartofseries 149
dc.rights Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden. sv
dc.rights This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited. en
dc.rights Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty. fi
dc.subject commercial rents fi
dc.subject office returns fi
dc.subject econometric modelling fi
dc.subject forecasting fi
dc.subject asymmetric responses fi
dc.subject cointegration fi
dc.subject panel estimation fi
dc.subject.other Finance fi
dc.title Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only) fi
dc.type.ontasot Doctoral thesis en
dc.type.ontasot Väitöskirja fi
dc.type.ontasot Doktorsavhandling sv
dc.type.dcmitype Text
dc.date.accepted 2005-10-14

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